It is now late afternoon in OH and the rest of the Eastern Time Zone. The polls here will be open for a few hours yet. There are reports of heavy turnouts some places, but such reports are anecdotal, maybe true, maybe not. Also, usually a large turnout favors the Democrats,, but few things are usual this year.

In an earlier blog, 2 or 3 months ago, I predicted the GOP would take the House by winning 20 or so more seats than they currently have. This would result in a majority of at least 15 in the House, maybe more. Right now the Dems lead, but the Republicans need only a 5 seat gain to take over. This being the case, I concede the House of Rep, at least for the moment, to the GOP. A big surprise is always possible, but in this case, the possibility is extremely remote. Almost certainly the House will be led by a new Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, He will likely have a majority of around 20 seats, maybe more.

So enough of that–I will concentrate upon the US Senate where there are still questions. There are 6 to 8 seats which are the key races here and I will briefly comment on 8 of them. There is overall agreement that many of these races are extremely close and also that the result may not be known this evening, possibly not for several days, maybe not for about a month if GA is close(see more on this later.)

Starting East and moving West like the pioneers, I begin with NH. Sen Maggie Hassan(D) is trying to hold off the aggressive campaign of the GOP’s Don Bolduc. The latter is a MAGA Republican of many extremely MAGAish views, particularly in his support of the obvious untruth that the 2020 Presidential Election was “stolen.” Gov Chris Sununu rightly dismissed him as a nutcase(no, not using that word)but refused to say he would oppose him over “one issue.” Hey, Gov, it looks like several issues to me.

Hassan has pointed to her loyalty to President Biden and her role in getting some of his most important legislation through the House. Nonetheless, the polls show a close race in this usually blue state. I suggest that Hassan will likely be re-elected, but not by a large majority.

PA is perhaps the biggest race in the country in most ways. It is one of two big states where the Dems might succeed in pulling off a “flip.” We have two flawed candidates, Dr Oz who has made some questionable statements such as the one that mentioned “local” authorities as playing a role in the pro-life/pro-choice fight. What he meant by local authorities and exactly how that would work is not clear. He has perhaps done himself some good(and also respected common sense)in endorsing the President’s de-criminalization of pot users and his refusal to get on the election denier train. Nonetheless, Donald Trump endorsed him.

John Fetterman, the Lt Gov of the State looked like a terrific candidate to some of us early on. To a large extent he still does, but his health remains a concern. He had a poor debate but has campaigned, I believe, fairly effectively since. Because of the peculiarities of PA election law and vote counting, as well as the closeness of the race, this one is not likely to be decided this evening and maybe not for several days(It took until Saturady in 2020 to make sure Biden had defeated Trump). In the end, I think it will be very, very close and I think Fetterman will squeak out a victory. But as Michael Smerconish likes to point out sometimes we predict more with our desires than our logic.

Just West of PA is OH where I sit now in a library about 50 miles or so west of the PA-OH state line. Here we have “Hillbilly Elegy” author J D Vance, R v US Rep Tim Ryan, D. The early advantage seemed to be Ryan’s in this now more or less red state, but as money and Trumpian influence flooded the OH Vance caught up.(Vance once derided Trump but changed his mind, whether sincerely or not I have no idea, but certainly to his advantage) It is now very close and like many other places it is likely to come down to turnout. My heart goes to Ryan(as did my early vote)but my gut says Vance–but very close and perhaps not to be decided for awhile.

Down south we have GA. This is perhaps the most visible Senate race in the US right now, Hershel Walker, R v incumbent Senator, Democrat Raphael Warnock. I originally thought that the simple facts about Walker’s past and character would be enough to defeat him but now I feel no certainly there. As voter after voter in GA has told journalists they care more about who runs the Senate than what runs Walker’s life and character, it appears he has a slight edge. I reluctantly predict he will likely win

But there is a joker in the deck in GA. State law requires a runoff if no one gets 50% of the vote. There is a Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver, running also. He is not likely to get much more than 2% of the vote, but if it’s really close that might be enough to require a runoff. And if the Senate vote should produce a 50-49 breakdown, then control of that chamber will depend on what happens in the early Dec runoff. If this should happen and you happen to live in GA, tighten your seatbelts. People and money, particularly money, will be coming there in huge numbers/amounts.

To the Upper Midwest and WI–this is straightforward in some respects. GOP Sen Ron Johnson is one of the most loyal of Trump followers endorsing nearly all the former President’s ideas including the election steal untruth. Democrat Mandela Barnes, the state’s apparently sober and sincere Lt Gov is still behind, thought a large undecided vote is clouding the issue a bit.- Advantage, Johnson, though I dislike admitting it.

AZ at least looks straightforward, though not easy to predict. Sen Mark Kelly, a sober and knowledgeable Democrat is challenged by Blake Masters, a young and spectacularly quickly rising GOP star. Masters has shown little interest in keeping his distance from Trump and, though a very successful business man seems to have little else to offer. Polls are close. I think Kelly will hang onto the seat for the Dems. It may be a long time being proved–remember AZ 2020.

IN NV Sen Catherine Cortez Masto,D is challenged by Adam Laxalt, Att Gen and heir to a Republican tradition in the state. Cortes is the superior candidate in my opinion and while it will be close I think she’ll hold the seat.

Finally, Alaska, which has a newish system for statewide election in which the top four finishers in the all-party primary get to the final round.. This means incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski takes on fellow Republican(Trump endorsed)Kelly Tshibaka, and Dem Patricia Chesbro. Buzz Kelly, another Republican, dropped out and endorsed Tshibaka. Murkowski is a clever and flexible politician who once beat both the GOP and Dem candidates as a write in. She will lose most of the Republican vote to Tshibaka, but will likely get a lot of Dems and Independents in her column. A close and interesting contest. Could go to Tshibaka but I put my money on Murkowski, one of the more independent Republicans in the Senate. Of course, she would vote with the party on organizing the senate and other procedural matters. Hello(maybe) Majority Leader McConnell

So- I am showing 4 Dems and 4 Republicans winning This would suggest a continuation of the 50-50 division which has existed since the 2020 election. Of course there could be surprises in other elections which would to some degree change all of this. The only prediction I feel wiling to give now is this–The Senate may split 50-50 again and it will not split more than 52-48 regardless of which party predominates. Since the Dems “win” with a 50-50 division(as long at they stick together)they have just a smidgen of a better chance of running the Senate than the Republicans. But it’s a small difference.

I guess time will tell, but it may take quite a bit, Meanwhile. I may be back soon to try to make up for my mistakes. Enjoy election night, folks–it’s an American night, nothing quite like it anywhere else. I hope that distinction remains–well, a distinction.