Well, it is a question. Now that we have the final results of the House of Rep seat distribution, and of the GA runoff, things are a littler more clear. than they were. But don’t count on a lot of clarity yet.

In the House the GOP apparently won 222 seats which gives them a 9 seat majority. This is not so close as to call into doubt every vote, but it’s close enough the give the party leaders a few chills. When anything serious is being considered the leadership is going to be doubtful. Presumably they will be careful to make sure everyone is still on the reservation as the vote approaches, but this may not always be possible. It will require strong and effective leadership and that is still a question

I would put my bet on Kevin McCarthy to be the new Speaker of the House, largely because he obviously wants it badly and does not appear to have any serious rivals. What he does have(and likely wishes he didn’t)is a lot of doubt about his leadership skills and his political ideas. These feelings are mostly with the Freedom Caucus and nearly all on the right flank of the putative Speaker.

There are likely some doubters on his left flank too, but the moderate Republicans appear disorganized and demoralized, though perhaps not quite as much as I had expected. They do not appear in the position of constituting a serious challenge and most of them would likely settle for staying out of the fight and, if there is to be one, watching the McCarthy people and the Freedom Caucus slug it out. There is just about zero chance of anyone left of McCarthy being Speaker.

So likely McCarthy will win the leadership role in the House. But he may find it difficult to lead. Some of the Freedom Caucus are far enough right that they might challenge him on some issues, in part because they genuinely disagree and in part because they want to show they have the chutzpa to do it. Fighting them off without offending them beyond cooperation may be difficult.

It appears that McCarthy is still worried about the Freedom Caucus and perhaps some others to the right. Though it is always possible he believed in what he did, that could have been part of the reason for his vote against gay marriage earlier today. And why not, from his point of view? This vote will be pleasing or at least not irritating to the right. Some of the more moderate types may be slightly miffed, but are not likely to give him real trouble over it. For one thing, some of them might fear that if they give him too much opposition, it’s possible he might fail 2 or 3 times to get 218 votes for Speaker and it is just(barely)possible they might wind up the someone they (and a lot of Democrats)would perceive as worse. This is not very likely but in American politics now, you should be careful of writing off anything that is even vaguely plausible when it comes to outcomes.

My guess is that McCarthy will be elected speaker, not without some struggle, perhaps, but not likely a big or long struggle. His rule may be a real pain, for him as much as anyone ese He follows one of the great speakers and he will have to ride herd on some unruly and not entirely rational people. He also may struggle a bit with his image as regards the former President, since he seemed originally to oppose Trump’s Jan 6 behavior, then flip to supporting it about a week later.

Regarding the Senate–Warnock wrapped it up with about a 2.8% victory, not a big margin but also not much room for doubt. He made an intelligent and at times almost visionary speech in claiming victory and thanking supporters. Walker made a fairly graceful and honorable exit, way better than I had expected of him. He spoke the most coherently I’ve ever heard him and made no preposterous Trump-like claims about the election being “stolen” or whatever. I don’t think he’s a classy guy, but he showed some class in bowing out. It doesn’t make up for his apparent past behavior and the nasty nuttiness of his campaign, but it’s at least a start, which is more than Trump has done.

So the Senate will be 51-49. Does this one more vote matter? Well, perhaps not as much as some Democratic leaders say, but it likely will have an effect. Manchin and Sinema will still have some power to be annoyances or worse, but it won’t be quite as easy as it was. The VP will not need to cast a vote very often, in fact not at all if Chuck Schumer keeps everyone on track. It will give a little sparkle to his title of Majority Leader and he may be able to spin that into increased authority and influence. Mitch McConnell may find he is not quite able to be as troublesome as he sometimes was, but the difference looks small.

On the surface I think this has to count as a small (very small) victory for the Republicans. After all, they now control the House and will be in place to harass and block the Administration in many of its plans and designs. Of course, the speaker will have to look over his shoulder frequently to make sure everyone is following, but that may work out.

But there’s always that pesky Senate and there’s the expectations game. Up until election night itself I think the Republicans and most Democrats too(to say nothing of political bloggers–I’m one)expected the GOP to have a majority of 20 seats or more. Their 9, though a victory, has to be a disappointment.

I think that most GOP politicians realized that their chances of winning the Senate were 50-50 at best. This, however, did not prevent some of the usual extravagant claims that they would win the Senate, some of them even suggesting they might have a couple of seats to spare. But there was another GOP disappointment.

Instead the Dems picked up one seat, running against the usual anti-White House trend in a mid-term. This was due to several causes, but one of the most obvious is surely the quality of the candidates. The GOP had several Senate candidates who were close to Trump on some of the more bizarre issues, particularly the “stolen” election thing and the Jan 6 riot. The fact that they had at least two gubernatorial candidates(PA & AZ)who were also into the extremist-type of campaigning was certainly no help. Keri Lake’s Trump-like behavior may actually have cost them the AZ Senate race, though likely Sen Kelly would have been re-elected anyway.

In this case the fading but still powerful Trump wing of the party seems to have lost touch with political reality. Fewer voters are impressed with wild theories and extravagant behavior on the stump than was the case six years ago or even two years ago. The Republicans may still have a case or two to make with the public, but not through goofy conspiracy theories and extreme ideas. Trump could still get the nomination again, but it looks less and less likely.

I think that the most likely thing now is that there will be some genuine attempt at bipartisanship on both sides in the new Congress. But this may be impeded some by the Trumpites on the Republican side and some of the more self-righteous leftists among the Democrats. It will require skillful political actions and a real willingness to compromise to get a whole lot done. I do have some hope that they will cooperate enough to keep the nation safe, military security wise and also financially. This would mean cooperation in giving sensible aid to Ukraine and in preventing a government shutdown or a default due to financial disagreements. The default thing is not likely but would be a real danger. The first thing a great nation does is pay its debts. Alexander Hamilton knew this even if some of today’s conservatives seem not to have noticed his example.

So I think we have here a muted Republican victory, but only a muted one. It is accompanied by relief and even pride on the part of some Democrats and time alone will tell who was the real victor.

I send best wishes to all for a good holiday season. I hope to be back shortly with some comments on Christmas-time reading and Christmas movies.