In just about 9 hours President Joe Biden will come into the House chamber accompanied by thunderous applause and will make his way, amid cheering and handshakes, to the podium where he will be greeted by Speaker McCarthy and Vice President Harris, both smiling but the latter a bit more sincerely.

People involved in covering the news and/or watching American politics often give advice on what one may glean from this almost annual affair, so here is my effort. I have not read what anyone else has written about this so far, so only I am responsible for what I say, the good, the bad and the in between.

First of all, take note of the reception the President gets. It is nearly always enthusiastic with members of Congress who have no use for the President for his Administration pressing to get a chance for a handshake. I suspect that this is due to at least 3 things–1) The publicity is likely enormous 2) The “all together” spirit of the two combined Houses on a possibly momentous occasion is easy to spread 3) At least some of the Members actually feel they are part of a tradition that needs to be honored, regardless of who is in the White House doing what.

So an attitude of enthusiasm is more or less an assumption. But to the extent possible, try to discern the sincerity of it, particularly on the part of the Republicans, although current polls would suggest watching both sides carefully. It is very unlikely that the President will receive anything but outward enthusiasm but any indication of boredom or non-enthusiasm MIGHT indicate something. Also, watch how many times he gets interrupted by applause and how enthusiastic it sounds–perhaps most of all, is it coming only from his own supporters? Usually it is and I doubt tonight will be different.

Turning to the address itself, how much time does the President give to domestic policy as opposed to foreign policy/national security? The Chinese airborne circus of the past few days has added, I’d say, to the amount of time the latter will get. But the emphasis will still be domestic, the economy followed at a close second, by violence, particularly police violence in America.

He will point out the extremely low unemployment rate and what may be a significant beginning to a decline in inflation. He has to be careful of this latter, because a great many citizens are still wincing at two main places–the gasoline pump and the check-out line at the supermarket. This is part of why he gets low marks from so many of his people on the economy, despite figures many past presidents would have drooled at. He needs to acknowledge this in some manner, and make some comment about why he thinks the Administration will pull it all together in time.

Regarding foreign policy, he needs to consider the misery of Turkey and Syria in the wake of the earthquake disaster there. He must show the US is open handed and ready to help, and I’m pretty sure he will do that. It’s the morally correct thing to do, it’s more likely to be politically advantageous, and it might forestall some of the attacks on the US regarding foreign policy matters, particularly the Chinese issue.

But the big one in foreign policy is still Russia-Ukraine. Here the President has a good record, having held together a somewhat tenuous alliance for about a year; he has done so in the face of incompetent determination and senseless seeming willingness to spend lives, Russians and others, from Putin. There have been a few cracks in the alliance hinted at but nothing too serious yet. The President must make it clear that the US and NATO are there to stay in Eastern Europe, and as backers of a free Ukraine, but will gladly seek the way of peace if given a reasonable chance.

The Chinese thing is a puzzle. It clearly was intentional on the part of the Chinese, something that was not obvious when we first heard about it. It would be interesting to hear the President comment on this and on the one floating around over South America and about which we seem to hear very little.

More to the point, the President needs to emphasize that far from waiting, he made the decision to shoot the balloon down early(Wednesday last week)and told the military to do it as soon as it was possible without endangering the main land US population. He does need to explain why the information was not made public earlier. So far he has not done this and the opposition will take advantage of this if feasible.

Then, again, what about the recent reports that this had happened other times, once during this Administration and three (3!)times during the previous one. No announcement or public statement regarding these was ever made. We need to know why not and whether there was good reason for hiding those(I doubt it) and releasing information about this one(almost certainly correctly, if slowly, handled)

Regarding both domestic and foreign policy, note how much the President seems willing to hold out a hand to Republicans and how much he is critical of them, particularly of their shrinking but ever noisy MAGA wing. The President has some legitimate accomplishments(the chips bill, the infrastructure action)on which he received some helpful Republican assistance. This needs to be acknowledged with respect but without being shy about the fact that the Administration is still in charge. And he needs some way to chastise the far right(or wherever the MAGA people are)without enraging them beyond their limited tempers and without insinuating that the MAGA ideas so frequently heard are typical of the Republican Party(actually, some of them are, but this is not a good time to point it out).

To close this out, I suggest that one of the most important things here will be the President’s demeanor. As is obvious from the above, a State of the Union Address is of necessity an exercise in balance. The President needs to show he can do this deftly and I think he will. Beyond that, he heeds to project calmness, authority and strength. This does not, of course, consist of trying to out-Trump Donald by braggart like behavior and unnecessary confrontations. It consists of gentlemanly behavior combined with determination. This is a combination which Biden is usually good at projecting, most likely because it’s the truth about him.

One other thing–those “responses”that nearly all the networks do after the speech, each side getting its say. Of course it’s important to let each side say what it wishes . But usually a careful observer knows pretty well what it’ll be. So watch them if you wish–the worst they will do is bore you. I think I’ll watch a movie or read a good book instead, or maybe do an old “Frazier.” If I feel so inspired, I’ll be back soon to comment on the evening.