Ramadan, Easter and Passover usually come at about the same time and this year is no exception. Ironically, along with this complexity which vexes few people, there is another that may vex many, now or later. To the Israeli political gridlock I discussed in my previous post there has now been added the complication of further armed conflict between Israel and some of its neighbors. Rockets have been fired, mostly from southern Lebanon into Israel and have caused some damage and some casualties Like the Ukrainian air force defending against Russian air attacks the Israelis intercept most attacking missiles, but it only takes one if it’s your family or home or business. Recently, two young Israelis, sisters, were killed by a rocket attack.

BBC and others are reporting that the missile attacks were revenge for an Israeli raid on Arab worshipers earlier this week at Al-Aqsa. This is a mosque which is part of the area known to Jews(and a lot of others)as the Temple Mount. The Israelis stated that the people in the area were there illegally and in defiance of an agreement and understanding that they not be there at that time. The Israelis maintain that they tried for a long time to remove them by persuasion before resorting to force. The force, including beatings with clubs, made TV.

The Arab side tells, of course, a different story. They claim that the Israelis made an unprovoked attack on legally assembled worshippers. The truth and the details or all this remain complicated and confused now and I shall deal with them later, if at all. Suffice it to say that the missiles initially came from Lebanon and involved a religious-political dispute between the Israeli government and Palestinian Moslems in Lebanon and that there are many unresolved questions.

I would like to unravel this just a little bit and then ask a couple of questions. First of all, what about Lebanon? This unfortunate country has been weighed down by a generation or two of strife, both civil war and civil disagreement. Once considered the Paris of the Middle East, Beirut, its capital, is no longer a tourist spot.

The political/religious situation is complex. There is a “legitimate” Lebanese government which tries to maintain relations with other countries and to behave more or less as a normal, independent nation. Sometimes it succeeds–sometimes not. Its main domestic antagonist is Hezbollah, one of the many Moslem radical groups that emerged from the late 20th century Arab world and increased its power and importance in the 21st.

The question of real power in Lebanon is delicate and difficult. Officially, the government, which itself is divided over religion and politics, is in charge and occasionally(very)they seem to be that. But their military power is certainly no greater and likely less than that of Hezbollah, the radical Sh’ia Moslem group. For many years it has been obvious that the government can do little if anything important without the agreement or at least non-interference of Hezbollah. When, about a decade and a half ago, there was a serious war between Israel and Lebanon it was Hezbollah that did most if not all of the fighting. It still seems to be dominant in the country as a whole.

To add a further complication, Hamas has now gotten involved. Hamas is a radical Sunni Moslem group that long has dominated Gaza, next door to Egypt on the west of Israel(Lebanon is to the north-try a good map on-line). Hamas and Hezbollah do not have exactly the same goals all the time, and of course are on different sides of the Sunni-Sh’ia quarrel, but they are close enough, apparently, enough to make them a dual danger to the Israelis.

Hamas is the leading–more or less the only–functional power in Gaza and now they seem to have some presence in Lebanon also. They were quick to stat firing rockets from Gaza into Israel and it appears they have some people in Lebanon who may have fired rockets at Israel too. So we have Israel and the Moselm power, Hezbollah, quarrelling over a disputed site, the quarrel escalating to violence on the ground, then Moslem rockets hitting Israel and now Israeli strike-back at Moslem sites.

Although it is always much easier to criticize from miles away about a fight in which you are not directly involved, I do have a couple of comments. It seems to me that the quickness with which the Moslems, led by Hezbollah, began attacking Israel was an extremely bad idea. The political crisis in Israel(see previous blog) makes the place more volatile than usual and whoever was in power would have been at least tempted to prove himself to the voters with rapid retaliation. Netanyahu was a hard liner to begin with and his curious coalition of right wing political parties and Orthodox Jewish extremists is obviously going to want quick revenge. Stirring a pot that is already boiling was not a good idea and the Moslems might have gained some credit with a show of restraint.

I have similar comments about the Israeli side. I am not a fan of Netanyahu as I hope is obvious if you’ve read what I’ve said about him before. But I recognize that he has been at times a strong if often misguided (my opinion) leader and he is the leader now. He wants to please his followers. He is also no doubt being harassed by great pressure from the right wing of his coalition to “do something.” EVEN SO I wish he had hesitated in ordering retaliations. If he had done so and the Moslems, Hezbollah, went on attacking he would then have something of a moral high ground position. He would be able to say something like, “Hey, we waited–how about stopping this now before we have to strike back?” And then the ball would be in Hezbollah’s court again and they could go on fighting and further their ruin their reputation, or they would deal.

Neither one of these has happened (nor was either one very likely, I admit) so I hope the folks at the state Department are working hard on sorting this out. The US has no treaty obligations exactly here, but our long term pledges and relationship with Israel dictate that we would stand behind the Israelis if it appeared their existence as a state was threatened. This is unlikely but should be kept in mind.

We also have to keep in mind that Hezbollah is closely linked to Iran, a country which wants nothing to do with agreements with the US. We may have to offend Hezbollah to some extent, but this should be held to a minimum and kept as muted as possible. It is unlikely, but not inconceivable that there could be a payoff in creating an opening to the Iranians. This is not a real expectation, but it is worth considering, all the same.

Beyond that, and within the limits of what can be done by a department already involved with Ukraine, China-Taiwan, Putin and others, I think we should offer our good offices to bring about peace. This likely would not work, but what if it did? And if it didn’t, at least we would be on the record as trying to bring peace, not more strife to the region. It would not make up for all the errors, ours and others’ in the past, but it might be a start. Sometimes, that’s all you need.

There is more to be said on this complex and terrible situation, but now is not the time. I wish a Happy Easter or other holiday to all and hope to return shortly with further developments and thoughts.