It occurs to me that I now need to add to my most recent blog before posting it. And that is because it occurs to me now–and based upon many things, but particularly very recent news–the world may be about to witness the exits from power of two “giants.” I have in mind, of course, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Each in a way is a giant in that each has had a very large influence on history, his own country’s and, considering the power of the countries involved, the world’s.

I am not, of course, arguing that Putin and Trump are the type to be held in equal esteem with FDR or Churchill. They were giants in every sense of the word. These two are giants in the sense that their effect upon the world was immense. The same could be said for Genghis Khan, Peter the Great, Lenin, and–well, I’d better stop before I get too many Russians in there. But you get my drift.

I have no way of being certain, of course. History takes odd turns sometimes and has a way of making fools of those who claim to know too much. So I’ll merely give you my impressions. My impressions are that these two will both be out of power or the reasonable pursuit of power–well, soon. Don’t ask me how long “soon” is in this case because I don’t know. There’s so much we don’t know or understand yet and so many possibilities. The likelihood appears to be that Putin could forced into resignation, possibly retirement(possibly worse),long before he intended. Russia is hard on losers .He’s still in charge now–he held a news conference earlier today(Tue the 27th) and did not appear more paranoid or nasty than usual. But this time the cards may truly be stacked against him.

OK, I’ve studied this a bit(not a lot, I admit)and I have consulted not only CNN on my TV set, but the online information from several news sources including British Intelligence web information and Reuters, the old and respected British news service. Of course these are sources which release only the information which the people in charge of the institution want released, but still are worth checking. And it’s a confusing mess and I think likely to remain so for awhile.

Brief Review–After months of blustering about it, Vladimir Putin sent his troops into Ukraine a year ago this past February. He expected a quick victory, days or maybe weeks. He got instead stiff resistance from an obviously well trained Ukrainian army with high morale and good organization. Backed by the surprisingly united West, i.e. NATO, which sent great amounts of equipment and tons of money, they stopped the Russian advance and in some places even pushed them back. The situation on the ground is still uncertain, with Ukraine making small advances and the Russians well dug in to resist. But the Russians also now have to deal with the fact that they came close to civil war in recent days, or if not out and out civil war, something approaching it. This cannot help having affected the feelings of the troops on the ground and some of the practical details surrounding them. Like who is really in charge and do they know what to do now? Like what’s going to happen to those thousands of Wagner guys, apparently now free to move around independently and many of them most likely still armed?

Several months ago Westerners and other observers who followed the conflict closely learned that new name, “Wagner.” Yes, the same name as the well-know German composer of centuries gone by and, I think, correctly pronounced with the “V” sound, though this seems not to be universal. We also learned a new name, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Well, maybe some of us learned his name months ago. I at least heard it and finally “learned it” in recent days. “Yev,” as we will call him for obvious reasons was the leader of Wagner, whatever it was.

Now Yev has a checkered history including some years in prison for unclear reasons during the last years of the USSR. He also has a long relationship with Putin. Sometimes called “Putin’s chef,” this is not quite accurate, but he did have a penchant for making money via food service including service to Putin. He also seems to have acquired both a talent and a taste for military control and command, and, not incidentally, for political intrigue.

Somewhere along the way he founded Wagner, apparently about 2015.
What his original intentions were is not clear to me(and I’ll bet wasn’t to a lot of people)but he built the organization into a sort of private military auxiliary for Russia. His guys were mercenaries and he and they fought because they were paid. The carried on work in several places, mostly in Africa, selling themselves to the highest bidder and, most likely, at least vaguely serving perceived Russian interests. It occurs to me that if Putin were really well educated he might be familiar with the words of Machiavelli on this matter. The clever and cunning Renaissance Italian thinker said that mercenaries are the most dangerous kind of troops to use. They may be very loyal one day and then turn on their masters the next for reasons of money or because of some other kind of worldly motivation.

After the invasion of Ukraine Yev became a frequently heard voice always pushing for different and usually harsher policies in the conflict. He took surprisingly frank dim views of the ways Putin was conducting the war, though he was cautious enough not to criticize him by name. He usually saved that for the Russian Defense Department and its leader, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

For months there had been speculation that trouble was brewing for Putin and Shoigu and that it was likely to come in the form of some kind of action led by Yev. This finally came to fruition a few days ago when Yev announced he was leaving Ukraine where he and his people had done some fighting against the Ukrainians and he had done a lot of complaining about Russia’s ineffective government and its war efforts. Accompanied by thousands of his troops, he entered southwest Russia, claiming that he was leading an attack on the Ministry of Defense(not the government or Putin–careful man here)and they quickly took the military base city of Rostov-on Don.(The takeover of the town appears to have been popular with its citizens. One might be reminded of the fact that in 1941 many Russians welcomed the German Army as rescuers from the depredations of Stalin’s regime. Most quickly or eventually realized their enormous mistake.)

For a few hours they held the city while Yev bragged about his coming march on Moscow. Actually, several thousand of his troops did start north and were heading for Moscow Saturday morning(US time)when they suddenly stopped about 125 miles short of their goal. There was not much explanation from Yev except that he wanted to prevent bloodshed among Russians, something that heretofore seems not to have bothered him. Perhaps the possibility of it being his blood that might be shed sobered him a bit–such things have been known to happen.

The Russian people are at least temporary winners here in that they are spared, for the moment anyway, internal fighting among their own, in other words, civil war. One possible longer time winner is Aleksandr Lukashenko, the long time leader(read dictator)of Belarus. Lukashenko has always admired strong(STRONG) leaders and in his own country has not changed the name of the secret service. I think every other republic of the one time USSR has done so–his alone remains KGB.

Lukashenko has claimed that he”brokered” the deal between Putin and Prigozihn which apparently will allow the latter to go to Belarus, his soldiers(i.e. former employees)to go home or join the Russian army, and imposes no penalties on anyone. “The Economist,” my favorite printed form of news doubts that he had a lot to do with bringing this about, but they do think he profits greatly from this. Whatever the truth of the matter, his prestige has been advanced and likewise his reputation as a smart tough guy. With Proigozihn and Putin both wounded, he might emerge as the Strongman of Eastern Europe(well, East of NATO, at least)

There seems no doubt that both Prigozihn and Putin are wounded, which worse is hard to tell. Prigozihn’s location was unknown for sometime but just in recent hours he seems to have turned up in Belarus. It also appears that his supposedly iron grip on the loyalty of his followers has melted away. It is now reported that thousands of them are furious at him for stopping the march on Moscow and are accusing him of betraying them. So the mix gets murkier and predictions more difficult.

But the opinions I heard on CNN a few hours ago, from various experts and journalists seemed to lean toward agreement that Putin is the temporary winner. But “temporary”may be the salient word. His at least temporary loss of apparent control of the Russian military may hurt him deeply. He looked at least temporarily like a loser, and I’ve already noted Russia’s attitude toward losers. Putin’s 20 year plus rulership(OK–near dictatorship most of the time)is still in place at least in appearance and perhaps in reality for now. But many who know the situation better than I feel it also may be on its last legs. What no one seems at all sure of is perhaps the biggest question–if Putin goes, who follows him and to what effect?

The Trump case, that is the most recent developments in it, is another matter and may be discussed much more quickly and directly. Unlike the Russian mess it is not full of ambiguities and maybes and who-knows-whats. As you have no doubt heard(maybe “heard” literally the source)a tape has surfaced which is now in the hands of CNN and CBS(and CBS partner, BBC). On it Trump, speaking to a group of visitors at his place in Bedminster NJ, displays a paper to them and brags that this is top secret. Reputedly the paper contains information on American plans for how to deal with Iran if for whatever reason an American attack upon Iran was required.

Now this paper, dealing with such matters as war and peace, east-west relations, US-Mideastern relations and the possibility of a war costing thousands of lives is about as important as things get. There is no doubt that Trump took it with him intentionally upon leaving the White House and he himself states on the tape that he did not declassify it(does that mean he never thought about it?)and that now, as of the date he was speaking to these people, it is still secret but beyond his ability as now ex-President to do anything about it.

Several attorneys interviewed on CNN agreed that a defense attorney confronted with this evidence on his client would be at a loss as to what to do to pull him out. There is simply no way to deny the truth. Trump took top-secret information with him which should never have been shared with anyone without a security clearance., But it was shared and now is world news.

I think this likely means that Trump’s chances to be President again just took a giant hit. He still possibly could make it, but it would be a bitterly divided nation he would be stuck leading and one with very likely a divided Congress and a confused and divided court system. I think that this will be obvious to any serious observer well before the election and will sink his chances to considerably less than 50%.

His chances of getting the Republican nomination are still higher than those of becoming President. But even this is beginning to fade I’d say. CNN reports that a recent poll(unspecified what poll as nearly as I could tell)showed slippage of his support within Republican ranks. It won’t take much more to put him into all over slippage among those who are likely to vote in Republican primaries and by the time the primary voting begins this process may have moved ahead a good ways.

It is still, of course, too early to tell anything for sure. But it appears to mean the Trump fascination may fade now, perhaps rather quickly and that it will never again be Trump and Putin running US-Russian relations. It will be Somebody else and Somebody else. In the case of the US the Somebody has to be an improvement on another Trump era. In the case of the Russians, it is harder to say. But a different world appears to be not only in order now, but possibly in view. Would that be a relief? I’ll leave your answer to you. You’ve likely already guessed mine.