President Biden is facing an especially difficult time in foreign policy at this moment. There are both military and dipomatic difficulties and the usual political dissent from some at home. Also, there are doubts about some of our allies in, particularly Turkey and Hungary, and what they are going to do or refuse to do.

The basics are now well known and likely you are aware of them, but just as a reminder–

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now about 1 year and 4 months old and no end is in sight.

The Ukrainians have resisted valiently, propped up by American and other NATO support in equipment, money and diplomatic efforts

The Ukrainians claim(and likely are to some extent) succeeding is pushing the Russians back a little bit in their counter offensive–but it is slow going and the price in pain, money , life and frustration is high–still both the people and the government show every intention of carrying on.

President Biden is now on a diplomatic journey to Europe He is expected to meet with British PM Rishi Sunak, King King Charles III and perhaps others, then move onto a NATO meeting at Vilnius, Lithuania, and eventually Finland. While there may be some dissent in the UK on at least one issue (see below)the main trouble is likely to appear at Vilnius. There are two parts to it–the President’s cluster bomb decision, made just days ago and explained on Fareed Zakaria’s CNN show Sunday, and much odder quarrels with the leaders of Turkey & Hungary.

On the cluster bomb decision–as I think nearly everyone(if they have the slightest interest in what is going on there) now knows, cluster bombs are a relatively new and potentially very deadly weapon which appeared apparently early this century (or about then) An airplane drops a container holding many small bombs which are programmed to go off about the time they get to the ground or shortly thereafter. Now any bomb is dangerous to human life(it is, after all a weapon)but these seemed particularly to threaten non-combatants, some immediately and some not for hours or years after being dropped.

Cluster bombs have a “dud-rate” which means a number of them are duds, that is they do not go off when supposed to. I did not find any exact figures on this, but my impression was that this rate sometimes could be 5% or more. These “duds” might lie quietly in a neighborhood, a farm or a woodland and then explode because someone tripped over the weapon or otherwise disturbed it or for some other reason; this could happen a long time, possibly years after they had been dropped.

This means of course they these weapons do not kill or injure at the time of the fighting, but may do so many years later to other people after a war is over No wonder, they are anathama to many. In the late 2000’s a effort began to ban their use and this led to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, an international agreement not to use such weapons. So far 123 nations have signed the agreement and all but 13 of them have ratified it. Among the signers-ratifiers are many of our best friends including Britian, Canada and France. Among the non-signers are the US, Ukraine, Russia, China and Iran Most of the non-signers are nations with whom we have at best coolish relations and with some (Iran, for example) we are actively hostile.

I am going to leave why the US stayed out of this humane-sounding agreement as a moot point for now, particularly since I found in searching the internet that it is difficult to locate a straight and intelligent sounding answer from anyone. The main point now is the President’s decision and what it means. Now anyone who has any common sense or empathy and has paid any attention to recent years knows Joe Biden is a decent man and one who acts on principle rather than mere politics to a remarkable degree, He told Fareed he found this a very difficult decision and I believe him He understands pain and loss and he knows his action to provide cluster bombs to Ukraine will cause these things. He hopes that it will also prevent more in the future.

I find this a very difficult decision too. Should I support him or not? I finally decided that I should,, so for what little it’s worth(not that anyone’s asking me) I back the President’s decision. My reasoning, following the President’s rather closely, I believe, is as follows–the Ukrainian advance though “successful” in that they are advancing, is very slow as noted above. The Russians have used cluster bombs against Ukraine without discrimination or restraint causing widespread pain and destruction that is totally non-military. They are also sowing the seeds of pain and loss in the future when the “duds’ go off.

There are to be some dissents and some decent hesitancy in our response and explanations. The Obama Administration issued some orders which limited our use of these weapons and some thought brought us close to playing the role of a signatory. We would like to be as close to that as possible The cluster bombs the US will supply to Ukraine will have a very low dud rate, maybe around 1%. This will make no difference to those who become victims of them, but consider how many fewer victims there will be.

Also consider that this could bring about a much earlier end to this conflict. Although almost nothing is easily comprehended about Russian politics these days, surely Putin is weaker after the failed coup attempt by Wagner than he was before. Possibly the pressures these weapons would put on him would bring peace sooner. I am perfectly aware there is no guarantee of that and that messing with Putin’s mind is a potentially dangerous game. But here it might be worth the risk, and with or without Putin at the top Russia might be weakened enough to have to deal. Yes, this sounds too good to be true and it may not be. But I see no other choices that are better.

To refuse the weapons to Zelenskey and the Ukrainians would be a blow to both their physical safety and, almost as importantly, to their morale. We need to give them the motivation to go ahead and free themselves from Russian domination if possible. Serious trouble lurks at the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia and the longer it takes to settle the struggle, the worse it gets. Additionally, even the Ukrainians’ spirit may not be inexhaustible; and likewise our so far mostly stolid-solid support from our European allies. So if these cluster weapons may end this war more quickly, then I think the President is correct. It was a terrible decision and I’m sure it wore on him heavily But I think he was right. His choices were bad or worse and he went for the former.

The President’s time at Vilnius is likely to to be a combination of cheers and good fellowship for the leader who so far has saved Ukraine and held the NATO pact nations together along with some other things. There are also going to be questions and maybe some serious dissents. Some of these will be over the cluster bombs since nearly all of NATO except the members who we don’t trust and who don’t trust us, are signatories of the Cluster Pact. The President will, I trust, lay out a defense somewhat similar to the one outlined above(he already has in interviews as we noted previously).

What else will take place at the NATO summit is more easily described (mostly, anyway) but may be just as difficult for the president. There are two main issues–Sweden joining NATO and Ukraine demanding the same thing with a possible visit to the meeting by President Zelensky

Turkey and Hungary stand in the way of Swedish membership. They are led by two of the more noxious of our allies, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Viktor Orban. Erdogan rose to leadership about twenty years ago and this looked like a good thing for Turkey for a while. The eminently calm and judicious “Economist” welcomed him and referred to him as a “moderate Islamist.” I doubt if that is a correct description and even if it is he has not turned out to be moderate in very much. His oppressiveness in a society that was verging on real democracy has led to one very serious effort to overthrow him and to another very close election where he was at risk of losing.; He has survived both, the former some years ago and the latter a few weeks ago. He appears to be solidly in power now.

His objection to Sweden is that the Swedes have allowed a number of people he banned or chased out of Turkey to take refuge there and have made their country a fairly comfortable place for such refugees. Erdogan hates this and is particularly angry about the help Sweden has given to the Kurdish nationalist group the PKK whom he regards(perhaps not entirely without reason)as terrorists. Sweden has made a few adjustments on their policies towards refugees but apparently not enough.

Just recently, however, Erdogan has raised a more serious and perhaps less tractable issue. For decades Turkey has been trying to get into the European Union(EU)without success. The reasons for their failure so far I think relates to actual trade considerations, a mistrust(understandable)of Erdogan and his ways and a feeling that the European Union should be for, well– Europeans (not necessarily a racist position in my opinion, but perhaps not a well-considered one.)

Just recently, however, Erdogan has raised this with regard to Sweden. Now he has decided that if Turkey does not get into the EU then Sweden does not get into NATO. This tit-for-tat my sound fair and possibly in a way is, but his timing is terrible and appears to be intended to be hostile and intimidating–and however powerful he may be in Turkey he is in no position to intimidate the EU. There is likely no easy way–perhaps no way at all–around this for the present. I think having the long neutral Swedes into NATO is highly desirable, both as a military matter(note that long eastern coast)and as a diplomatic move showing that Putin-Russian arrogance and aggressiveness has pushed them into the anti-Russian camp.

The other, slightly but only slightly less irritating and menacing threat to Swedish membership is Hungary or rather its Trump-like sounding prime minister Viktor Orban who has ruled Hungary for about half of its 32-year history as a free (of the USSR) nation. It is still a democracy in that votes seem to count there but Orban’s personality and behavior seem to validate a comment I heard from a friend that an observer made a couple of years ago–that Eastern Europe is moving back towards its natural form of government — fascism. Well, Hungary is not there yet and it sounds as if enough Hungarians don’t want to go there that they may prevent it.

Whatever the case with all that, Orban is apparently a bitter foe of Sweden. His main complaint seems to be that the Swedes have said bad things about him and his approach to democracy and the rule of law. Just what the Swedes(government or ,media or both)said about him I don’t know but his attitudes have left plenty of room for such comments–which likely does not make it easier for him to take–maybe the opposite.

I know of no other squabble between the two countries though it did occur that he might be seeking to curry favor with Erdogan whom he might admire as another strong man and someone he might want to emulate or even join

The other big issue is fairly straightforward but potentially troublesome in the long run. The Ukrainians want also to belong to NATO. President Biden has said, and I think he’s right, that this is not the time. If they became a member now it would trigger Article 5 which requires each member to assist an attacked neighbor. The US and Luxembourg, in other words, would both be obliged to at least legally go to war with Russia.

Now possibly there are some provisions in international law that apply here and would indicate that joining after the war has begun is a different situation. But I’m just guessing on that, and anyway, even if it were true, there would still be increased diplomatic and moral pressure on all the members to get involved. We do not want that to happen and the President is right on this

Fortunately, it appears most of the NATO nations leaders agree with the US on this one. Most likely there won’t be big trouble about it, though it certainly may be mentioned. President Zelensky is rumored to be considering a visit to the meeting himself. Fortunately, he too, though wishing strongly to be a part of NATO, seems to have a realistic view here. He knows that it cannot really be expected now. It will have to wait for the end of the war and perhaps longer. But it should come eventually and likely will

So the President has a lot of issues, some harder than others, none easy ahead of him here. I expect that this will go fairly well and both Ukraine and NATO will emerge stronger. Keep watching.