I wonder if President Biden or State Secretary Blinken regrets today that he is in office. Most likely not–they are both patriotic and deveoted men who want to do what is right. But it would be hard to blame one or both of them if he wished he were relaxing on a beach in retirement as Biden could be or still an academic or a ranking but not top level foreign policy official in the government, as Blinken might well be if Biden had not tapped him for the top job at State.

I’m sure they are both eager to struggle with the problems at hand and to do their best to straighten out the messes. But they might indeed wish someone else was responsible for this although I doubt one or both of them would want that someone else to be anyone connected in any way to Donald Trump. Briefly, consider what they face.

First there is Ukraine and it will not go away because of US domestic political problems or international crises somewhere else in the world. The Ukranian gains from late summer seem to have been real but small and now to be ended or close to it. This will obviously likely go on much longer.

There are some signs that the backers of Ukraine are softening a bit in their support in some cases. This is not critically bad so far, but it will be soon if it picks up strength like a snowball rolling down a hill. Europe is for the most part holding fast as was shown at a recent meeting of European diplomatic and political leaders. But in some places there are indications that some of these countries’ people are tiring of the outflow of money and time being taken for it to help.

In Slovakia there was recently an election in which a party sometimes described as populist right-wing finished first. It is opposed to more help for Ukraine and took 23% of the vote. Second was a liberal, pro-Ukraine party with 18%. Since more than 20 parties were involved these are fairly high numbers and clearly the two leaders, though each would have a long way to go to build a majority coalition. Nonetheless, it is cautionary. Could what happened there happen elsewhere? Of course. Will it? Who knows? But Biden and Blinken have to consider the possibility it will–and what would they do if it does?

So Ukraine remains an issue and there is no easy way out So far the Administration has done a good job of holding things together. But the longer it goes on the harder it gets. Now add into that, the sudden explosion today(Oct 7)in Israel. For maybe the 2nd time in history the Mossad, Israel’s vaunted intelligence service, seems to have been bested, to have been unready for something which it would seem they should have noticed.

It has been pointed out by many already that this is similar to the Yom Kippur war 51 years ago They missed that one too and now a generation or(more like)two later it has happened again Why it happend the first time is still difficult to say for sure and hardly matters now unless there is a lesson to be learned from it which is likely not the case What they missed then had to do with old fasioned inter-state power politics. This is the new world of non-state(sort of)violence and terrorism and has nothing really traditional about it, although after a about a quarter of a century many of us have pretty much gotten used to it. The attack came from Gaza, right next door, which has long been (effectively if not actually officially)governed by Hamas.

Hamas is a religioos/political movement, a Sunni one which would usually be opposed by Hezbollah, the Sh’ia one in nearby Lebanon. They have run Gaza for about a decade and a half since surprsingly ousting the old Fatah government in an election which was part of the legacy of the Oslo Accords. They have rarely shown any inclination to compromise or consider anyone else’s point of view unless they had worked them into a situatuon in which it appeared it would be suicidal for both sides to go on fighting(This more or less happened about a dozen years ago

Hamas appears to be advancing with not only the intent of taking land but also kidnapping and imprisoning Israeli civiians. What the purpose of taking such prisoners would be is hard to figure, and harder to think about.. The Israelis have announced(or PM Netenyahu did)that Israel now is in a state of war. I dislike to agree with Bibi on much of anything, but it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that he is close to being right here. What role the US will be able to play here is not clear, but it must be something. For many reasons, strategic, economic and others we cannot afford to let the Middle East slip from our grasp or influence. This has already happened to some extent with Israel whose sorry domestic state and political quarrelling may have had something to do with getting themselves into this mess to begin with.

Finally. and mercifully more briefly, there is our own political crisis. The House of Representatives is without a leader. Maybe one will emerge soon. But to what purpose? If he is as recalcitrant as the right wingers who dispatched the unlikeable but ultimately willing to compromise McCarthy, then little good may come of it. And action is needed quickly first, of course, on our spending and shut down crisis, but almost as quickly on these foreign policy issues. And if the leaders turns out to be Ohio’s Jim Jordan, the attitude toward a resonsible foreign policy may be even more questionable than it has been earlier this year.

So Biden and Blinken have a genuine mess or combination of messes on their hands and there cold br more waiting–say China, or North Korea for openers, and possible more in the Middle East as well. They need to tread both carefuly and boldly to the exent that is possible. No action or excessive action would both be potentially disastrous and it appears no quick fix is on the way in Ukraine or Israel. I’m sure they are both aware of this. Let us hope most of both parties in the House and Senate are aware of it too and willing both to offer sensible and sound advice on one hand and to stay out of the way on the other.