It was less than a week ago when I finished a blog here in my local library where I sit right now and sent it out to be published. I did not require a lot of time after that to find out that my article was already obsolete when it hit the email sites. The reason for this obsolescence was that when I had written a meeting appeared to be almost ready to take place. It would have been President Biden face-to-face with the Presidents of Egypt and Jordan, the leader of the Palestinian Authority and perhaps a couple of other more moderate Arab spokesmen. By the time I had finished and published my piece these meetings were already called off.

The reason for this highly unfortunate outcome was the other leaders’ fury about the now-infamous bombing in northern Gaza,killing and wounding large number of Palestinians. Whatever fury they felt was fanned and made more politically acceptable(maybe helpful)by the even more hysterical fury in the Arab Street.

It should be noted that huge conclusion jumps were made. Hamas said Israel did it and it was assumed Israel did it with out any evidence that this was so. Whatever their many shortcomings, the mobs in the Arab streets cannot be accused of hypocrisy or trying the make political points with this anger. The pepole are obviously furious beyond reason and believe deeply that they are right. The leaders, I suspect, may feel some of the same feelings, yet have a few doubts as to the truth. But the lure of political opportunism may lead them on to places they eventually will regret.

It is taking longer to nail down a 100% proof of just who was to blame for this senseless and horrifying slaughter of people who were merely seeking shelter from violence than I had expected. But I think it will eventually be clear enough and the the newspapers and magazines along with the on-line columns and later writers of the histories will mostly get it right. And for my money, it’s clear right now. I doubt that I am alone in this conclusion.

No one, not even the US or Israel has said so far they have 100% proof. But what they do have is a combination of forensic and other evidence that indicates that beyond almost all reasonable doubt this was not done by Israel. Let me sum up what appear to me to be the main points of this evidence

1)There is overwhelming agreement from military and intelligence analysts that the damage of this blast was not from a bomb. The crater it left behind was not large enough. What it did look like was a crater left by a rocket which landed and/or crashed on this spot.

2) Israeli intelligence has provided TV networks with videos of what is apparently a rocket rising over the area involved, then beginning to fall to earth. Later(not very much, though)there is a large explosion. No, the film does not show the rocket every second from its apparent flame-out to its hitting the ground but the timing appears about right and there is no alternative explanation for what caused the explosion. So the Israeli contention that this was a rocket fired from inside Gaza and meant to strike Israel, but which failed to make it to its intended destination is plausible. In fact, it is more than that–it is almost the only possible explanation. This is means there was a lot of excess fuel in the rocket and therefore explains the size of the explosion

3) There is no plausible or logical reason why the Israelis would do this. They would almost surely have understood that such an act, if proven, would utterly infuriate millions on the Arab street and put great pressure on various political leaders to take a hard stance toward Israel and the US, its principal and most powerful ally. With the exception of the proving it part, this is exactly what happened and a tantalizingly momentous meeting of minds was prevented. The President still did well to go and did good job in Israel and on his return trip. But so much potential was lost, all the same.

So we are reduced now to the “where do we go from here” part. And there are no good answers.

The fact that some trucks were let through to relieve the Gaza people this morning is mildly encouraging but only mildly(if that)so. This is a drop in the b ucket approach and helps hardly anyone. As a gesture, it’s all right, but it must be improved upon and quickly. Meantime impatience grows on both sides.

Netanyahu, heretofore the most hawkish of PM’s vis a vis Arab neighbors now appears slightly less so than his generals. The latter seemed, earlier today, at least, to have concluded that the only way out is to crush Hamas. I can understand their desire to get rid of any enemy which wrecked such destruction and pain on their people, but one still has to ask at what cost, and what next?

Tom Friedman’s article Oct 19 in the NYT has been widely praised and I wish to join in the praise. I have long thought him one of the best, perhaps THE best of the long list of good and excellent thinkers who write for the Times, and never more than now. Please read the article for yourself, but let me note what I take to be his main and oh-so-important point. It is inevitable that there will be some strike back by the Israelis considering what has happened to them. But, Friedman says, let that response be as measured as possible. It should be only military, not vengeance -seeking in what it does. And, even more importantly, this must be accompanied by an acceptance by Israel of the two–state solution to the question of Palestinians on the West Bank. This means the eventual–perhaps fairly quick– agreement by Israel that the West Bank will become a free and independent Arab state.

This outcome is unacceptable to much of the Israeli right, who feel Israel must not be touched, that is changed in any way. I respect their emotions, but I suggest that in the spirit of the Jewish faith and the Jewish people a little maneuvering for the blessing of peace is in order here. Furthermore, as previously pointed out in many forums, perhaps including this one, this is to the advantage of Israel. If they continue to be just one state, then eventually the Arab population will outnumber the Jewish popoulation and Israel, will cease to be a Jewish state. This is opposite of what it was supposed to be, namely a safe home for the Jewish people.

But a two state solution would preserve Israel’s chacter and nature better and be more true to its founders intentons. They would give up some West Bank land which would become a part of the Arab state. But Israel would remain Jewish, only without the bitter current divisions. This is plainly what its founders wanted and their dream would be fulfilled, while the rights of Arabs to their own destiny would be preserved.