The last debate begore the primary/caucus season begins is tonight in Iowa. Far from the stage full of Republican hopefuls we saw a few months ago, we are now down to two, one time SC Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and FL Gov Ron DeSantis. Not that there aren’t others who are still trying. The most notable of these is one time NJ Gov Chris Christie, who didn’t meet the requirements for getting on camera this time.

But he’s still the only announced GOP candidate who is willing to say out and out what he thinks of Trump. And to hear him tell it, he’s not going anywhere. And he is, I think, likely telling the truth on that. He usually does, however odd that makes him among Republican leaders.

The obvious MIA candidate is former President and current front runner Donald J Trump who is supposed to hold some campaign event this evening while the debate is going on. Trump has been said to be perfectly happy to stay out of the debates as long as he maintains his lead. This strategy has served him well enough so far, but I do think there may be a time limit on it. Unless he can wrap things up quickly, some people, even some Trump people, may begin to ask uncomfortable questions, such as “Why won’t he go on TV with the others? What’s he think he would be risking?”

These are reasonable enough questions and likely ones Trump and his people don’t want to have to answer. They may not have to, but I’ll bet a shiver went through them when that poll was released yesterday that showed Haley had closed in on him in New Hampshire to the point where his once 20+ point lead had faded to single digits.

Now I know IA is not NH and that their way of choosing a candidate in their “caucus” is unusual, not to say unique. I also know that the IA results are often confusing and frequently have temporarily put the brakes on apparently successful campaigns–but usually only temporarily. But the NH news still has to be disturbing. What if IA, always a wild card, yields a different winner than Trump, or anyway a smaller than expected victory? And then he goes on to lose NH or win it by only a couple of points?

I personally feel that the court cases against him are potentially damaging. Jack Smith seems to have the real goods on him and I think the information from that trial might be enough to sink Trump’s chances. But his tactics of delay look as if they are going to work and the facts won’t get out until after the election. If he should win the election and then the facts get out before the inauguration and are damaging, the US could face a very dicey situation, which might call on both(or all?)sides to exercise the greatest restraint and good will. And good luck with that one.

As to tonight, it may be interesting–maybe not. DiSantis has never seemed to me to be anywhere near presidential material and while his public persona has improved slightly as his people have taught him how to present himself, he still doesn’t look like a President to me. Since he is trying to be the Trump who isn’t Trump there are likely to be few big surprises. 

Haley is obviously the superior of the two in intelligence and personality and could score a knockout, though knocking out DiSantis with Trump still leading could be meaningless in the long run. She has handled herself well most of the time, though she had to work her way through a downer when she flubbed that Civil War question. It should have been obvious that the most sensible and patriotic thing to say(and also most likely, the most politically astute one)was that the root cause was slavery, though you could make it a bit more complicated by discussing constitutional issues–like secession.

I look forward to hearing both of them quizzed on two things–immigration, particularly the mess on our southern border, and foreign policy/national security, particularly Ukraine-and Gaza and the Houthis and Iran, and ISIS and–well, you get the idea. Biden is vulnerable on the southern border issue since his administration seems to have failed to find anything approaching an effective and desirable approach for three years. Of course the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama/Trump administrations failed for around a quarter of a century, but the situation is worse now and obviously something new is needed. It may be interesting to see what the two competitors tonight have to say.

On the other foreign policy issues Biden has done well(except for Afghanistan)and his main trouble, like with much of his domestic policy, is getting the word out. It should be at least mentioned, of course, that both the Ukraine issue and the mess in Gaza are dangerous flashpoints and one or both of them could explode. There is the potential for real trouble with each of them and the Republicans in Congress, particularly in the House of Representatives, are not looking cooperative.

When it comes to foreign policy DiSantis has pretty much followed the Trump line, to the extent you can find a coherent one. Halley has shown much more common sense and understanding of the difficulties the world and therefore the US face at this time and has also shown some interest in and possibly talent for, coping with them. This may not be a big part of this evening’s exercise, but be alert to the possibilities.

Personally, I look forward to both the spin from supporters and the analysis from reporters. I might try of little bit of that myself.