More than half a year ago, on the day Hamas launched its murderous attack on Israelis, I did an article I entitled “The Biden-Blinken Nightmare–Two Foreign Crises, One Domestic One and No Apparent Solution.” Now we have a very similar situation. We still have the two foreign crises, the same ones in different stages. We also have a new one at home, insecurity and political showboating thanks to the Trump trial. So, I think it appropriate that I reflect on this a bit, particularly since I haven’t blogged in more than a month (I’ve been involved in a project which I may expand upon a bit later)

The above mentioned two foreign crises were Ukraine and Israel. They are still there though in somewhat different forms. Ukraine is perhaps the more dangerous one in the long run. Israel is maybe the more disturbing one now with its gross and inhuman contempt for human pain and its ability to bring out the worst in nearly everyone on both sides (or however many there are) in the Middle East, the USA (particularly college campuses, supposedly both judicious and humane), and elsewhere.

In October 2023 Ukraine was running low on ammunition and money and was in a position of looking at a time when it might be literally unable to defend itself against the Russians. The US Government was unable to act thanks to a recalcitrant Congress, mostly Republicans in the House (I have since commented on Republicans and Isolationism–you might want the check that one again).

The Biden Administration, accompanied by a number of saner Republicans (and including new Speaker Mike Johnson, to whom I extend great thanks) tried to turn this around. It took a longer time than it should have, but it finally worked, and the bill passed the House by a comfortable margin. So now Ukraine has the money to supply itself with the defensive weapons it needs. But it has to hurry. The Russian army is moving in on them, claiming victories in several cities in Eastern Ukraine and this time the Russians seem to be telling the truth (they do that when they’re winning).

The trouble is that the supplies may not be as quick as needed in arriving. Beyond that, although the amount provided is fairly generous, this weapons supply will not last indefinitely. And when and if (as most likely will happen) more is needed the same issue will re-appear. Will it be possible to get a sufficient number of members of the US Congress and enough of our European allies to get on board again? Maybe, but divided as the world (Europe included, unfortunately) is this is by no means assured. And if Ukraine goes down or is forced to settle for a peace leaving Russia in the dominant position …Well, maybe I’ll get back to that later, preferably in another blog

The situation in Israel is grabbing the headlines(those available, anyway) from Ukraine to some extent, actually a fairly large extent. This is because of the great pain that has been endured by so many on both sides and the seeming resistance of people on both sides to trying to reach a humane and decent settlement.(This will be difficult given the inhumanities visited on each side).

NOW-to be perfectly clear, I am, as I have stated before, a dedicated friend of Israel. We must protect their right to exist without qualification. And, if push came to shove, I’m sure the US would do that. In other words, we must, for reasons moral, strategic and long term honorable, defy any attempt to wipe them out and eliminate their state from the map. And make no mistake, there are people on the other side who want to do just that, though I doubt the idea gets much support from the more balanced Arab governments.

But now we have an additional complication. Yesterday, Ireland, Spain and Norway, three of our better friends, usually, “recognized” an independent Palestinian State. Now there is no such thing as a Palestinian State right now. There is the West Bank area of Israel, governed (more or less) by the Palestinian Authority. See my earlier article on this for more information. But it did occur to me that it’s hard to see how you “recognize”(the word they apparently used, perhaps on purpose given its diplomatic implications) something that is not yet in existence.

As a pro-Israeli person who dislikes Netanyahu and would like to see peaceful intentions on both sides, I would like to add the following– It is unfortunate that these three nations chose to act in this way and at this time. If they felt they needed to say something right away, I think it would have been more sensible to announce that you “favor “a West Bank Palestinian State as part of the “Two State Solution” we have heard about for some time now. That would appear to be exactly what they are asking for, and although words are not always that important, this may be one of the cases in which they are.

But if they had only said so, it would have been better. If they had just said they favored a 2-state solution and that they would recognize such a Palestinian State, that would have been much better. It would not have included the confusing anomaly of “recognizing” a current non-entity and, more importantly, it might have muted slightly the vigorous outrage with which Israel and the Biden Administration both responded. Well, the latter one, anyway, might have been affected. This would have been desirable in that it is always desirable to keep down the voices and the tempers in trying to defuse an apparently intractable diplomatic issue.

In the long run all this may make no difference. But it is an example of how this hideous problem for the West, the Middle East and the World is subject to many twists and turns of both politics and words, and that sometimes the latter may be the more confusing, the more inclined to inhibit progress.

Of course, I recognize there is an additional complication now in that the ICC(International Criminal Court), two days ago issued what amounts to an indictment of Netanyahu and the leaders of Hamas. As a longtime non-admirer of Netanyahu, I still must say that I have my doubts about this. The one thing the chief prosecutor, Kalid Khan, was presumably looking for (in addition to real justice) is a sense of “equivalence,” a feeling that the two sides are being treated equally. This may play well among some, both leaders and the masses, in certain Middle Eastern countries. But Israel and the US are claiming outrage and I more or less agree with them.

The great irony is that it really IS true that there has been serious viciousness on both sides and that it is conceivable that some on each side deserved to be charged with Crimes Against Humanity. Even so, given the atrocious behavior of Hamas in the attack last October, I fail to see that “equivalency” is there. Many Israelis did cruel and vicious things, yes. But I don’t see that they matched Hamas.

This makes it difficult to see how to proceed and it may make the whole issue more difficult to solve. My own hope is that everyone involved, the ICC, the Israelis and their enemies, Hamas or whoever, will for once follow the same policy. Don’t bluster, don’t threaten and don’t hold more press conferences on this, at least not now. This is a time for everyone involved to be quiet and maybe(maybe)feelings will calm just a tiny bit on each side.

Given the complicated rules surrounding how the ICC works and what authority it has, it is just about impossible to imagine them ever getting ahold of Netanyahu or his enemies, the Hamas leaders. So, in the long run it may be a non-issue. But it will take a while to get there. So, get ready to hear a lot about this and hope for cooler heads to prevail on each side and among the ICC which I hope will refrain from pushing this issue against seemingly impossible odds. Or, as I said at the end of a blog some months ago, it’s a time to remember that old hymn than urges “Pray for the peace of Jerusalem.”