The next British Parliamentary Election is set for July 4. No, I don’t think it was done as a joke or an exercise in irony. Nonetheless the date is striking. Our(ostensible)date of Independence may become Britain’s date of dependence on a new kind of politics. First Past the Post(FPTP) voting may yield, eventually, to something like proportional representation. All this is covered rather more than adequately in an article by John Burn-Murdoch which you may find easily onlone if you wish to pursue this further.

Before that happens, however, the US is set to kick off this possible mass of political nuttiness with the first of two Presidential Debates for the Upcoming Election. This is set for this coming Thu, Jun 27 and holds the possibility of seriously contributing to the election process and also the possibility of turning into a row; the moderator’s ability to shut off the participants’ mics when they are not speaking should help. Both Biden and Trump are working seriously on this as I write.

The three possible messes that could follow from these, debate and election, are the Republican convention, the vagaries of British political acumen and foreign policy, and the prospects for global peace, particularly relating to the Middle East and Ukraine. Let’s take them, briefly but seriously, one by one

The number one political topic on US TV news these past two mornings was the Debate and how both participants will do. Of course opinions on NBC, ABC and CNN were all over the place, but if there was one discernable, agreed upon fact, it was that both candidates could help themselves and both could screw it up.

There is an opportunity for each of them. If Biden does well, particularly if he looks mentally alert and reasonably forceful, he may be able to stop the decline in his popularity. Actually, some very recent polls show it may have stopped and very slightly reversed itself already. But the changes are very small and not much verified. They may be results of Trump’s conviction. Whatever the facts surrounding this, Biden needs to look competent and strong enough. If he does, the effect of that, combined with whatever drove the recent change I mentioned above, could turn things around. If he fails to give a good performance, however, he will be in a real mess, his election chances varying according to make up attempts, luck and serious flubs by the Trumpites.

Trump’s opportunity is to make himself taken more seriously by the large number of voters who consider a tiresome bore with no coherent message and no reasonable sense of much of anything. This appears to have moved some of his people to have lectured him over the weekend for he has suddenly calmed down a little bit. He stopped speaking of Biden’s mental lapses and he admitted he(the President)is a good debater. He appeared to take seriously the idea that debate may be more than another vehicle for his ego. He may be able to take advantage of these revelations, or his personality may prohibit his doing so.

One thing going on here may be an attempt to raise the bar on Biden in a peculiar but possibly effective way. The Trumpites may now be worried that they have shown such contempt for Biden as to lower expectations among the public to the extent that any halfway passable Presidential effort may look like a victory. Now by granting that he has shown debating and other skills in the past, they may be trying to raise that bar again. This is a convoluted and rather strange way to mess with the debate. It might work.

Biden’s chief trouble is the age issue and anything negative which may seem to flow from that. This is a matter of both cognitive abilities and just plain energy/strength which many seem to think he lacks(I agree that at least sometimes, he gives that impression). Now Joe is known for gaffes and has been for many years. What the source of this is(other than stuttering)I refuse to speculate upon, but it’s clearly there and part of him. He’s been made fun of for it since he was in his 40’s, so to put it down to his age is ludicrous. He also seems to get his facts right most of the time. He struggles to think of a name now and then–well, welcome to no longer being young, buddy. Nearly everyone does that. But most of us don’t have the misfortune to do it on TV while running for President.

Still, this is not an issue to take lightly. Obviously a real cognitive issue in a President would be a very serious matter, particularly with the world seeming, unfortunately, to be moving from a more peaceful stance back to one reminiscent of the cold war era. Given his tendency to do low level stuttering and to make a hash of his sentences at times, it is incumbent upon Biden to be careful in the debate. He has made a number of good speeches lately on Ukraine, the Middle East and other matters. He needs to keep it up.

He also needs to look more vigorous. This may be the tougher of the two. He is, well, an old man and nothing is going to make him look 45 again. But there are some things he can do. He must remain calm, within reason. (I think he was well within his rights when he told Trump to shut up in a 2020 debate.) Although not know as much as many politicians for his temper, he must clamp down on displays of it. But most of all, he needs to watch his voice. This is not something over which he will have absolute control, but he needs to do whatever he can. He has to, via his voice and manner, project the impression that he is in control and capable of making good decisions.

Of course he also needs to explain how his programs have been working and what he thinks they will continue to do as well as how they will bring about what people want.

Trump has to worry about showing himself off as a bad-tempered, quick on the trigger responder, full of bluster and hot air, and without the patience to discern when faced with difficult choices. It appears some of his more sensible people have gotten to him, as he was speaking of Biden’s debating talents the other night as if he expected a serious effort from his opponent. This is likely to be the most watched and analyzed Presidential Debate in history. It is likely to be the most, or at least one of the most influential in determining the election outcome. Please watch.

OK, that’s enough for now. I intend to be back soon(very soon, I would hope)with Part II.