President Trump has succeeded, as usual, in staying in the headlines, and as usual some of his methods of doing it are of questionable honesty or usefulness to the country. As usual, he is indulging his taste for bragging and , also as usual, some of the things he brags about appear not to have happened, at least not in the way or with the effect he ascribes to them. So, I wish to take a look at where things stand right now.

First of all, on the whole, he appears to be in trouble with the public. His ratings have slipped badly over the last month or so. This has to do with both foreign and domestic affairs. This week the prominence of the Epstein matter is making his position considerably worse.

On foreign affairs he has continued to use his tariff threats as weapons. Though he hasn’t done a tariff change in 2 or 3 days now, they have been steady and are quite possibly going to return. This has had some effect upon the economy, but not a big one, apparently, so far.

The economy itself continues to percolate along without extremely serious issues right now. That may change at any time and there are certainly things to fear in the national and world economies, but right at this moment the USA economy looks OK. Trump inherited a pretty good economy from the Biden Administration(despite inflation) and has so far largely kept it that way. Unemployment is holding steadily at a low level and inflation is down compared to, say, last fall when it was an ( somewhat mistakenly and misunderstood)issue in the Presidential campaign.

The latest figures show that it has now picked up a little bit. This is likely at least partly due to the newly imposed and frequently discussed and/or changed tariff plans the president has presented. He has a tendency to make several changes in a few days, leave a few days quiet, then go back after it again. This is not likely to inspire much confidence among other nations, nor here at home. Some think that the tariffs have had only a small effect so far but will prove in the near future to have more. Although recent polls show the public does not like his handling of the economy, my sense is that they would, on direct questioning, , give him a give a pass rather than a fail on it –but just barely and maybe just for now. So he’s neither obviously winner or loser yet on one of his two leading campaign issues, though he and his people aren’t, I think, very happy about it.

The other issue was immigration and here he looks definitely a loser. He drew a lot of votes from frightened people who thought, correctly or not, that their way of life was threatened, and who believed, wrongly in nearly all cases, I think, that restricting immigration would help. They also responded to his demand that we get rid of people in the country illegally and, in a connected matter, responded to his outrage about our southern border. They were likely more or less right about the border, although it’s not a simple issue.

But Trump went ahead and began an aggressive campaign(and sometimes a legally questionable one)to get rid of the illegals. Yes, a lot of Americans wanted them out. But most of them did not imagine sending ICE to workplaces where immigrants were obviously contributing to our economy by working. They didn’;t want people torn away from their jobs and expelled from the country. They did not sign up for stories of children and parents being torn apart. They did not like what they’ve heard about the conditions at “Alligator Alcatraz.” Although I haven’t heard or read anything about it, I doubt if many of them like seeing the illegals bent over, forced to move with their faces almost touching the ground, and overall treated like prisoners in a fascist type camp.

So Trump’s first big issue is working slightly if at all and his second one is turning out to be, so far anyway, a loser. His poll numbers are way down in practically everything, even among many Republicans and certainly among the all important, and now quite large group, regarded as independents. If the party can’t keep nearly all of its own people on their path and add to that a large number of independents, they are going to lose.

Trump might still turn out a winner on the bombing of Iran. But please note that in a very short time the story, a headline issue for awhile, has faded away. How much have you read or heard of it lately? Trump loudly proclaimed it had worked, but what does “worked” mean? As far as I can see people who really know something about military matters are very cautious for now. Yes, severe damager was done to what was visible on the bases. But was Iran’s nuclear drive serously set back or threatened? I don’t think this is clear yet. As long as it is unclear and fading from the public consciousness Trump will win few it any points for it.

But more recently, like late this week, the Epstein matter has, at least temporarily, tended to eclipse everything else. This is a serious matter which I think may be the first thing in the second Trump Administration that might not just cause trouble, but actually threaten his Presidency. It is impossible to tell yet, but Epstein was obviously a highly undesirable person and one with whom Trump was in a close friendship for a long time.

I think the most damaging thing-and the thought is not original with me–is that the Pam Bondi-birthday list thing my be the last straw, in some respects, depending on how it goes. It appears just about beyond doubt that the Attorney General did tell the President, a couple of months ago, that he was frequently mentioned in the notorious letter. The mere mentioning may not be damaging because it may not indicate misdeeds on the President’s part. But the close relationship implied by the apparently large number of times his name is mentioned is likely to create a poor(or worse)impression. This could mean, that if there is real dynamite in there somewhere, the explosion from it could be louder that anticipated. I doubt if there will be an impeachment vote on this issue, but it’s not impossible.

All of this has now, in the last day or two, been complicated by several other people, all but one of them servants of Mr Trump, the other one a European, who have chosen for whatever reason to stir the pot themselves. DNI(Director of National Intelligence)Tulsi Gabbard issued a statement charging President Obama with committing treason during Hillary’s campaign for President by plotting for Russian interference in the election. The charge is ludicrous and has been put down before, but Ms Gabbard was on the outs with Trump and this seemed a way to get back into his good graces. So far it may be working.

But it likely didn’t make her any better liked by Attorney General Bondi who apparently didn’t know it was coming and was stuck with dealing with an accusation she wouldn’t have made herself. This is particularly true in that even if there were some suspicion–of which there is not–that the former President is guilty of this, what could they do about it? The Trump Administration and the Supreme Court recently established and endorsed the principle that the President cannot be prosecuted for any “official” acts while President. This was intended to get Trump off the hook for any unpleasant revelation about his behavior during his first term. But it obviously could not be applied to one President and not another. The AG issued a vague statement about pursuing the matter but not strongly endorsing all Gabbard’s accusations.

At the same time Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell put on white hard hats and strolled together around a building site for some new office space for the Fed. They looked like two old guys wearing hard hits because they wandered into a dangerous space without knowing what they were doing. In the President’s case this may be just about true.

Trump made some incorrect and somewhat incoherent comments about building and spending at the Fed. Powell, looking both older and way more informed than the President, pointed out that the President was including figures for a building finished two or three years ago which had no relevance to what they were supposedly considering. Trump was left looking like a poleaxed sheep wearing weird orange make-up. By the way, Jeffrey Toobin has a very interesting and clarifying article on this in Friday’s(Jul 25)NYT.

Possibly the most serious outside interruption to Trump’s Epstein troubles came from French President Emmanuel Macron who announced France was ready to recognize a Palestinian state. I have already written about this recognizing of a state that technically doesn’t exist and I have nothing to add to that. But Macron, however, much I might question the legal relevance of his move, has distracted the attention of about half the world from the USA to the Middle East with this-at least for now. And the terrible stories coming out of Gaza are likely to keep some of it there.

And indeed, recent further revelations about the brutality with which the people, particularly the children of Gaza are being treated make this a more fruitful issue for Macron than would otherwise be the case. The US and Israel are objecting fairly loudly, but The British government of struggling PM Sir Keir Starmer is being fairly supportive of old friend France. This may not be something the President will have to deal with right away, but it does point out that the Middle East, particularly Gaza, is still a serious humanitarian and therefore also diplomatic problem and has to be dealt with eventually.

So on the whole, Trump’s temporarily triumphant march to popularity has gotten a spoke in its wheel for a number of reasons. We now must wait for the next move–which will like come from the Deputy Atty General and his visit to Ms Maxwell. Stay tuned

The AG issued a bvague statement