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The Ghosts of Movies Past–The Uninvited
I originally thought of this title for a series about old films some time ago and I guess the title came to me by way of memories of “A Christmas Carol.” But I waited long enough to begin, that it now fits the season of Halloween. By “ghosts” here, I mean mostly the former, the lingering effect of films, both in the minds of individuals and in the rather ephemeral but I think important national subconscious-at least the subconscious of movie fans. So I begin with two kinds of ghosts to talk about, the effect of a movie and the subject of the movie itself.
“The Uninvited(1944), is, technically, an American film but it sure seems like a British one. Set in Cornwall in the spring-summer of 1937, it concerns a brother and sister(Ray Milland and Ruth Hussey)who, while on vacation, discover a large, long deserted house and become determined to buy it. He is a London music critic and composer and she is, apparently, independently well to do. They pool their resources and succeed in getting the house, purchasing it from the owner, a crusty old carryover from Victorianism(Donald Crisp), and also come into contact with his overprotected and somewhat intimidated granddaughter, Stella(Gail Russell).
The film, like most at the time, and fortunately, I think, in this case, is in black and white. It begins with a wide-vision shot of the sea and the audience gets to see white caps as the waters come ashore on the rocks. They also get to hear the sound of this. Meanwhile, they hear Milland doing a voice-over regarding the coasts of lands that border this part of the sea and their propensity for providing a background for ghostly events. This all sets the scene nicely and puts the viewer in an agreeable tingly mood.
I will not go into the film in great detail here, but you need to know a little of what happens. The granddaughter, much against her Grandfather’s wishes, makes friends, barely, with the two Londoners. She and Milland seem to have a quick, closeness between them, and the stage seems set for romance, particularly when Milland writes her a song. But instead there is uncertainty and fear(“Stella By Starlight” became a jazz/Great American Songbook hit–you still might hear Miles Davis’s and other versions of it on Sirius “Real Jazz”)
On the first night brother and sister are together in their new home, Milland hears the sound of a woman sobbing. His sister explains that during the weeks he was cleaning up details in London and she was civilizing the house, she heard this several times, and no, it’s not Lizzie, the housekeeper, whose cat behaved oddly and refused to go upstairs. “It comes from everywhere and nowhere,” she says. Yes, indeed.
Without going into revealing details, I will merely say that this is the beginning of a tense and compelling ghost story that does not terrify you with nut cases running around with chainsaws, but may make your hair re-arrange itself a couple of times and send through you a couple of chills, so you feel as if you had just come inside on a cold winter day. Questions are asked and not, immediately, anyway, answered. The history of the house is studied and eventually, after quite a bit of tension and suspense, there are a number of ghostly manifestations(along with some explanations, too).
If you check this out on-line you will find many people praising it. But some regard it as weak stuff, nothing like today’s “shock” films with noise, blood and violence. This is, in my opinion, a good thing. This movie is not about physical violence. It is about subtle, spiritual and psychological haunting and the different but still chilling fear it can bring. It is way more sophisticated than the gross chop ’em to bits type. It is by far my favorite supernatural film–“The Haunting” from the 1960’s would be second, but for all its qualities it is not equal to this.
Part of the reason for this film’s excellence is found in the efforts of the director, Lewis Miller. Every scene seems to fit, to be an integral part of the story. The appearance and atmosphere of the house are allowed to play a significant role, but one you see or sense in the background, just part of the scenery of chills. When the manifestations do appear, they are not clear–they are foggy and indistinct, like something from a dream or a surrealist artist, as if telling us that this is not just a matter of other people, it’s other people from outside our reality, but real and perhaps threatening all the same.
Given the movie’s age you might expect to creak a little bit–and it does, but only slightly. Some of the romance is a bit contrived and the attempts at humor are clearly several decades behind the curve. But these count little, they are a small part of the overall story, maybe 5% or less of the movie. And there is the brief presence of the elegant and unusual Cornelia Otis Skinner who in a very busy life acted a little bit and maybe should have more. Her teacher/counsellor is a combination of authoritarianism and doubtful sanity that you won’t forget.
This is not a movie for people who want to be “shocked” by violence and mayhem and screaming. It is about the mystery and spookiness of encountering the supernatural and trying to figure it out, and being both afraid on one hand and anxious to learn on the other. It’s a film for people who like mystery in the most serious and meaningful sense of the term, the kind that sneaks up on you after midnight, and spooks your mind and soul rather than threatening your body. In an era where so many movies have the grossest violence with almost no subtlety at all, it is a reminder of civilized behavior and presumes it can exist among both those of flesh and blood and the wandering spirits. Try it, you might really like it.
(Other than the common title, this film has nothing to do with the one made in the late 2000’s, maybe 2009 or thereabouts. I watched about 20 or 25 minutes of it once which was enough to determine that 1) The stories are not connected and 2) I was wasting my time)
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New and Exciting(for mystery fans)
It is always a pleasure to introduce your friends to a new writer or musician, etc with whom you are taken. Well, I have one for you, although many of you may already know him. But he’s new to me. This is Richard Osman, who I have learned is a well-known and much liked TV personality in the UK. “The Thursday Murder Club” is his first novel. It was published in 2020 and he has written and published 3 more, all successors in what promises to be a long and much loved series.(Move over Miss Marple and Hercule Poirot and Gideon Fell and–well, fill in the blanks, if your are a fan of that noble art form, British mysteries.)
TMC, as I’ll refer to it now, takes place in an apparently fairly expensive retirement center in Kent, not too far from London. There is a group there who call themselves “The Thursday Murder Club.” Their more-or less leader is Elizabeth, a retired sleuth of some kind, never really specified very well–was she a cop, MI5 or what? Anyhow, she has the skills and the nerve to do the job of leading. Then there is Joyce, her more subdued companion.. A retired nurse and a close observer of human behavior, Joyce keeps a diary which provides the first person account of what’s happening and offers many important pieces of information as well as opinions. The two men are Ibrihim, a retired Psychiatrist and Ron, a former leftist politician/union guy who has nonetheless chosen to spend his declining years among the rich.
Elizabeth is currently married, the others all widowed. Elizabeth’s husband Stephen is a source of puzzlement I never figured out. He seems to have some kind of mental disorder which prevents his keeping company with other people or indeed leaving their room at all. But he takes care of himself well enough when Elizabeth is busy and plays a tough game of chess.(Does this mean that all those people who have beaten me at chess have had something wrong with their minds? I doubt it, my wife is one of them). Elizabeth loves him dearly but has her life to lead outside of their room too, and does so.
There are some other residents of importance but I won’t burden you or me with discussing all of them. Very important in the plot are two cops, a young lady, 20ish Donna DeFreitas and a not so young gentleman, 40ish Chris Hudson who is overweight and constantly hassled by Donna to watch his diet. They introduce a bit of legality and officialdom into the story.
But the story is definitely about amateur sleuthings, much more than legal pursuit. The TMC meets weekly and they review an old, unsolved murder case to see if they can crack it(Elizabeth seems to have access to all kinds of old information about such cases). They are a combination of irritated and amused when Donna goes to Coopers Chase to give a presentation on retirement village living and security. They treat her with tolerance, slight cynicism and warmth.
When a murder occurs involving two of the entrepreneurs of the Close it is natural(given their nearby office)and about a sure thing if you know your mystery novels, that these two are going to get involved. They do, and there follows an increasingly complicated but always fascinating story of the club trying to sort things out, sometimes getting help from the police and sometimes deceiving them. Contradictions pile up and parts of the puzzle seem to fade while others come to the fore. We learn of some of the past of Coopers and some of the nuns who lived there when it was a convent and what happened to at least one of them. We meet Penney, the one time leader of the club, now apparently comatose and cared for tenderly by her husband. And slowly and fascinatingly, and with the usual number of twists the story eventually is unraveled.
I will not be a Spoiler by saying more about the plot but I have a lot more to say about the book. First of all, I loved it. I could tell from the first page that I was in the hands of a master who knew what he was doing. It took a little longer, but it soon occurred to me that he is not only a mystery master, he is an out and out superb writer, capable of fitting words and phrases together in a way that thoroughly engages the reader and keeps them interested in the characters. And he also, speaking of them, is a master creator of characters, people that are good(many)and evil(a few), some of whom have done terrible things and come to regrets and who have lived lives of silence about many things.
And here is where I differ slightly(but not in my overall love of the book)with many of the people whose opinions I have read on line. There are both critics and amateur individual readers among them. I would say the approval rate was somewhere in the area of 98% with practically no one giving TMC a negative review. But I differ on their attitudes to the author and the tone of the book. Most of them seem to treat it as a “cozy” or a comic-mystery. I would reject both terms, but neither of them is entirely wrong.
It is cozy in that it takes place in a sheltered and mostly(obviously not completely)secure community. It is cozy in that the great majority of the characters are “nice” in a way that gets the job done without disgusting the more cynical. It is “cozy” in the sense that to some extent all will come out right. But it is not cozy in overdoing the comforts. Not everyone gets just treatment. Some of the violence, present and past, is terrible. Some of the characters carry awful guilt with them, sometimes for decades. Some of the characters’ thoughts are very bleak though not usually spoken.
As to it’s being a comic-mystery–this is closer to the truth than calling it “cozy.” Actually much of it is funny, some just about to the point of hilarity. The conversations of the Club are often amusing and entertaining, a sort of British, 21st century version of the old NY Round Table. Their use of words, phrasing and other such opportunities of our language often are taken advantage of to the full. Likewise, the witty combination of people in their 70’s and 80’s actually is not only bracing for those of us of a certain age, it is also part of the fun. Donna and Chris are not stupid, but they never seem quite up to the TMC folks,
Now–a number of the other reviewers did note that the book has its serious side. None of them developed this fully in my opinion, but several noted it. This is true and this is why I wouldn’t advertise(in any sense of the term)it as a comedy-mystery. Along with the fun of being around a group of witty, inquisitive interesting people, you cannot miss that you are still among older people These are people who have lived most of their lives in the chronological sense for sure and likely in the experience sense also-at least most of them. They are mostly still full people, capable of full human emotions and actions, but there is an awareness among them–an awareness that life will not go in indefinitely, that everyone’s life has limits, and that they are as vulnerable as many others of their age. This is sometimes commented upon more or less obliquely. There is no “Oh, everything was so much better then” stuff– to my great delight. There is no “Time turn back in they ever “–uh, whatever the rest of the quote is.
There is, however, a serious recognition of time and its limits. There is a serious understanding of how significant these can be. And there is a sadness in this that comes through quite clearly though it is never elucidated in so many words or really in many words at all. One reviewer did comment that they were deeply moved by the ending of the book and so was I. I can’t really see how you could miss. And hats of to Mr Osman for doing this so well and for moving us to tears and laughter, if not at the same time, at least sometimes in the same chapter or close to it.
I hope my words have made you want to read this book. I found it both moving and funny and, oh , yes, a ripping good mystery which if you go back and check(as I sort of did)at the end, I believe you’ll find ties up loose ends, at least the important ones. It is the best mystery I have read in a long time and it stands with with Lawrence Block’s “When the Sacred Gin Mill Closes” as one of the best books I’ve ever read that is also a mystery. So look on line or check your library or whatever,–don’t miss this one. I’ll bet it will whet your appetite, as it has mine, for Osman’s three successor books. I can hardly wait to see what the TMC get into next!
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Repeat Watching
Frasier, Brideshead Revisited, Random Harvest, Brief Encounter, Beckett
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Republicans and Isolationism–Twists and Turns
Nearly everyone speaking or writing about the current US Presidential campaign has at some point noted foreign policy or at least our relations with other nations as a part of it. It usually does not receive the same attention as border security and immigration(though they’re related), inflation and the overall apparent dissatisfaction of much of the middle classes, particularly those between the Appalachians and the Rockies.
But foreign policy keeps sticking its nose in and for good reason. We have Ukraine and we have Israel, including Gaza. Sitting in the background(but not far in it) we have Putin, Russia’s ruler and a lot of other people we’d rather not think about. There are also possible outcomes we’d like to ignore, but can’t. I shall mention most if not all of these, or more, in this blog, but I intend mainly to look at American conservatism and its shifting and sometimes contradictory attitudes. This means mostly the Republicans, but not exclusively.
Not wanting a thousand word article, I will not go into the subject of historical isolationism back to the American Revolution in great detail. Suffice it to say that mostly, from the founding of the nation into the 20th century, the US preferred a minimum amount of foreign connections. There were exceptions, mostly economically inspired, but this was the main thrust. It changed somewhat late in the 19th century when the US, led by Admiral Mahan and Theodore Roosevelt jumped on the European bandwagon of colonialism and tried, sometimes with some success, to compete with the older European powers and their colonialist policies.
This ran into trouble about the time of the Wilson Administration because of the outbreak of WWI in Europe and a great American desire to stay out of it. As it turned out we couldn’t. At least WW thought not, and he, basically a man of peace, was likely right, even though this is not a simple issue. What we can say without much hesitation is that after WWI the US became largely an isolationist nation. This happened for a number of reasons, mostly related to the idea that we had been tricked into WWI and/or had not gotten our due out of helping bring about the Allied victory. As a result, during the 1920’s the US took a low profile in most international moments. There were exceptions such as the useless Kellogg-Briand pact, but this was the tendency. After all, it was the “Roaring Twenties,” the era of bathtub gin and F Scott Fitzgerald and Speak-easies. It seemed everyone just wanted to have a good time and ignore the bigger world.
This ended abruptly with the 1929 Market Crash and the subsequent depression, but this didn’t change foreign policy ideas. If anything the US was more isolationist in the ’30’s because of dealing with out own troubles. Foreign policy, like Prohibition, was hardly debated in the 1932 Presidential election. It would return, however, in 1936 and to a much greater degree another four years later after another European war threatened–and now as a largely partisan issue.
For most of the 1930’s both parties were divided on whether to be isolationist and if so, how isolationist to be. The more super isolationists were usually Republicans, particularly Midwestern ones, and ironically they included a number of old GOP progressives–Hiram Johnson and Robert LaFollette, for example. But there were also eastern isolationists and Democratic Isolationists. Southern Democrats seem to have tended toward isolationism more than others, at least UNTIL 1940, But the member of the House who tried to amend the constitution to require a public referendum on going to war was Rep Louis Ludlow of Indiana. So it was not entirely a regional thing.
In the first FDR administration the President’s attention had to be on domestic affairs. With 1/4, maybe 1/3 of the work force unemployed and maybe nearly as many under employed, there was no other choice. But even then for those who closely watched foreign affairs, there were signs of trouble. Mussolini had risen to power in Italy in the 1920’s with the Fascist Party as his tool. It was not clear he was a US enemy but there was no doubt he was anti-democratic and anti-individual liberties so the presumption was that he could be trouble.
IN 1933 in Germany Hitler and his Nazis took power not long before FDR became President. It was evident from the beginning that he was a potential enemy of democracy and the ways of Western Individual rights and freedoms. At about the same time there was a plethora of books that “revealed” how the US should not have been involved in World War I and that the war was partly a plot by international bankers to get even richer. Much of this information was incorrect, but a lot of it was widely believed and public opinion to some degree accepted this. This position was also aided by the Nye Committee, led by Sen Gerald Nye a ND Republican which held investigations from 1934-’37 and basically approved and publicized some of these views
This combination of disappointment, suspicion and outrage was a strong driver of isolationist opinion and one of the driving powers, along with American suspicion of anyone not American)of the Neutrality Acts. But shortly after the First Neutrality Act the Spanish civil war began, which turned out to be an invitation for the dictatorial European powers to intervene and make trouble for their own benefit. This grabbed the attention of many previoisyly indifferent to what was going on elsewhere,
Beginning with 1935 there were, depending on how you count it, three or four Neutrality Acts–some of them were actually extentions of prior passed laws. Without going into detail about each one, suffice it to say that they mainly restricted or forbade American trading with belligerent powers(participants in a conflict)and first advised then commanded that Americans not travel on belligerent nations’ ships. All of this is obviously based on the idea that we got into WWI by mistake and one thing that caused it was getting too closely involved with the participants.
Basically, FDR did not like these acts which he saw as naive and foolish in their attempt to reject the rest of the world and worse than useless in preventing another European War. But he did have serious opposition from both parties. A large number–minority, but still a sizeable one–of Republicans were for the Acts. This was particularly the work of a group of Isolationist Republicans mostly from the Midwest and West, many of them powerful Senators who FDR feared might attempt to interfere with his New Deal policies. So he signed the Neutrality Acts although not without discussion and a few compromises. There were Democratic opponents too, mainly from the South, but the majority opposition was Republican and sort of a mixture of hidebound conservatives and old Progressives who still saw WWI as a boon to “warmongers” in big business..
As the decade wore on things got more complicated. The Spanish civil war brought disorder and chaos to Europe and served as an invitation to the totalitarian powers, Italy, Germany and the USSR to try to profit from it politically and to use it as a training/testing ground to check out and develop weapons for later fighting. Mussolini seized Ethiopia, Hitler re-occupied the Rhineland and then in 1938 caused the Munich Crisis. All of this pushed some–but not many–isolationists a bit towards FDR’s view that it was a big world and the US had to be part of it and would certainly have to deal with any widespread war.
In 1939 this became less theoretical and more of a daily issue when the war actually began. Hitler invaded Poland in September, 1939 and , pursuant to the Nazi-Soviet Pact Stalin attacked Poland from he East with the two supposedly hostile but now cooperating powers quickly dividing that unfortunate nation. In December, 1939 Stalin struck again , this time against neighboring Finland, and the following spring Hitler began his attacks on Western Europe. It appeared he would soon have the whole continent at his feet except, possibly the UK.
This triggered a huge and strong response from the isolationist community in the US. In September of 1940 the powerful but short lived America First Committee was formed at, of all places, Yale University. Its single purpose was the keep the US out of any foreign war and it asserted that a Nazi victory over Britain would not imperil the US. It included people of many different stripes. For good reasons a lot of people were just against another war. Historian Susan Dunn who has studied the movement extensively concluded it had “farmers, union leaders, wealthy industrialists, …Democrats, Republicans, Socialists, communists, anti-communists, radicals, pacifists and simple FDR haters.” So clearly it attracted people of many different views. Certainly those who had known the horror of the trenches in WWI and their families had reason to want to avoid another war.
Dunn stated that “Though most of its members were probably patriotic, well-meaning and honest…the AFC would never be able to purge itself of the taint of anti-Semitism.” This was because many of its founders and early leaders and speakers at least sounded anti-Semitic. The first well-known leader of the AFV was industrialist Henry Ford, the most notorious Anti-Semite in the US. So the committee was burdened with suspicion, some of it well founded, from the start. It remained powerful, however, until the Japanese attacked. Pearl Harbor. On Dec 11, 1941 it disbanded.
From Pearl Harbor on to VJ day isolationism was hardly a question at all. There was almost universal agreement that the Axis powers had to be defeated. But during the war there did arise among conservative Republicans, and perhaps a few others, a dread and loathing of the Soviet Union. Now I’m not going to say there was no reason to loath Stalin and his dictatorial Communist state. There certainly was. But along with this there came a near-hysterical fear of anything that smacked of socialism or communism and of anyone who had ever read about it or considered it, no matter how far in the past. I think this was in the air as the war ended.
It was not long before the dreams of allied unity after the war began to fade and within a few years it was clear a Cold War between the USSR and the West was developing. Part of this was the Iron Curtain which cut off Eastern Europe from the rest of the continent. With the USSR both intransigent and obviously pursuing atomic weapons, it was not unreasonable to form an alliance to caution the Soviets that it would mean trouble if they attempted to take Western Europe by military force. Their army was big enough that they might well have done it, so it was thought they needed to understand this would make them the enemy of the US and a number of allies.
This all led to the NATO(North Atlantic Treaty Organization)alliance. The original members were the US, Canada ad several European democracies including the UK, France and Italy, with a total of 12. The signers of the NATO Treaty agreed to cooperate for their mutual defense. Article 5 declared than an attack upon any one of the countries meant an attack upon all and would lead the USSR into war with all of them.
This treaty which pleased many people on both sides(Liberal and Conservative, Democrat and Republican) was approved by most of the public and, formally, by the US Senate, which voted for NATO by an overwhelming 82-13. But there were dissenters, most of them on the far right. Whoa! What sense does this make? The right wingers, a group who prided themselves on “patriotism” and willingness to fight evil opposed it? Well a lot of them didn’t but some did. This means that the strain of conservative thought that leads to isolationism runs very deep in American conservative thought and, like a drug-repressed case of acne, may erupt if not successfully diminished..
During the war a few far right wingers complained that we were getting too close to the USSR and Stalin. Now Stalin and the Soviet Union were , indeed, to be feared and despised. But when we were struggling together against the curse of Nazism was not the time for it. But this thought began to erupt among a few people in politics about the time the war ended and it led to a not judicious or even judgmental, but an hysterical fear/loathing of communism or anything that was or seemed even close to it. I have already noted this a few paragraphs above. And there was enough of it in 1946 to pressure Harry Truman into what was almost his only foreign policy mistake. Given the opportunity of making an ally of Ho Chi Min, the Communist leader of the anti-French Vietnamese rebels, he chose to make them enemies, which led to one of the great American Tragedies about 20 years later–the Viet Nam War.
More immediately, this strain of thought also got itself involved in the Chinese civil war which it would exploit against the Roosevelt tradition and Truman and to the idea that anyone who favored international cooperation of nearly any kind was a commie or at least “pink.” Incredibly, a few moderate to liberal Senators who supported the NATO alliance were denounced as “pink” for doing any thing so internationalist, never mind that it was an anti-Communist alliance. Irrationality, you see, is not an invention of the 1990’s, when it comes to conservative politics in the US.
During most of the 1950’s Dwight Eisenhower was President. Ike was what today would be considered a moderate Republican(Trump would likely say “RINO”)and because he was a Republican General it was difficult for the right to attack him much. The fact that he had a firm but not hysterical policy toward the Soviets helped too. Not that it kept all the extreme right bizarre people out of the limelight. There was, after all, the John Birch Society and a few others, but they were widely(and very correctly)regrading as nut cases by nearly everyone.
During this time there was fairly broad agreement between the two parties about foreign policy. We should oppose the spread of communism(George Kennan’s “containment”)but do it peaceably as far as possible and avoid a direct confrontation with the USSR. There were a few dissenters, right and left, but not very many who got real attention.
The 1960’s saw a change. The US commitment in Vietnam changed from a pledge of support and supply and advice, to a military commitment to South Vietnam and finally to what amounted to an American War on the Asian continent with 5000 plus mile supply lines and questionable support at home. And here something happened that seems strange, but has a perverted logic–if not much common sense–to it. The far right conservatives, hitherto the only group that accepted isolationists among its members, suddenly became interventionist . Their extreme anti-communism suddenly had switched from leaving the rest of the world alone to supporting anti-communists everywhere, no matter how brutal and stupid they were or how doomed and hopeless their cause.
Conversely, some liberals slipped toward less anti-Communism, possibly a good thing in some cases, but easy to take too far. Some of them may have questioned the overall internationalism of the US. In any event there was a turnaround. Largely Republicans supported the US participation in Vietnam more than the Democrats; particularly the left wing of the party, opposed it. This led to a sort of showdown in the 1972 Presidential election when war-President Richard Nixon trounced peace advocate Democrat George McGovern. This, however, is a very complex issue which I am not inclined to pursue. Suffice it to say there was a sort of turnaround.
The turn around, however, was not extreme and once the Vietnam War ended there was again a fair amount of agreement between the right and the left on foreign policy. With some exceptions this agreement lasted for quite awhile. If you look at the personalities of prominent Secretaries of State from each side, say Henry Kissinger and Hillary Clinton, you will not see a lot of difference. And with the Soviet Union gone and its successor state, the Russian Republic replacing it, there was not quite so much too fight about–for awhile.
But the rise of Islamic violence and terrorism provided a new enemy. After 9/11 almost everybody in the US was(understandably) strong for punishing Al Qaeda and other such groups, mostly to protect our national security, but also to exact vengeance. There was not a great deal of difference between Dems and Reps on this at first, but as the George W Bush Administration became more and more warlike some of the old discord again appeared. Again, with some exceptions, Republicans were way more enthusiastic about using military actions to repress the terrorists than Democrats. Sometimes, for example in stopping ISIS, there was fairly broad agreement, but the old divisions remained. It was in some sense the cold war attitudes all over again.
This situation lasted until–well, just a few years ago. But with the rise of Donald J Trump, his MAGA Republicans and a whole new look to the Republican Party appeared. Or a very old one was reconstructed. While nearly everyone was shocked by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the only opposition to our support of that beleaguered country came from the very far right. And there weren’t many for awhile. But as time moved along and Ukrainian victory drives stalled, patience ran thin and the Republican right, particularly in the House of Representatives, began to question the whole commitment.
I suggest you look at statements of isolationists from the 1930’s and some from contemporary isolationists. They are frequently remarkably similar. Both question the correctness of the US assuming serious connections to the rest of the world. Each believes that foreign villains should be left alone, Well, of course, they’re right to the extent that we can’t and shouldn’t go after every villainous leader in the world, but there are some so evil and dangerous to our allies and therefore ultimately to us that we must act on them.
This was what the FDR era isolationists never seemed to get, that Hitler and Mussolini were not just a threat to other continental European countries. They were a threat to Western Civilization and hence to us. So was the USSR in the long run, but the short run had to be handled first or there wouldn’t have been a long run to worry about. Today we hear very similar arguments. No one would argue against foreign trade, but the voices of some of the Republican, isolationist right today suggest that the US need not worry about tactical and strategic matters in Europe or elsewhere and that we can turn our back on the troubles of the rest of the world when it comes to people like Putin, But we can’t and most of us know that, by knowledge or by instinct or by both.
The tragic war in Gaza has made this worse by giving the right wingers a war of obvious horror and of some clearly questionable reactions by our ally Israel to use as an example of foreign involvement. So some of them are demagoging this and implying that this is the same thing we’re facing with Putin and Ukraine. But it’s not and it won’t be.
I have likely said enough on this matter to wear out my welcome, but I will add one thing. It almost looks as if there is some tendency in the minds(not the brains, I won’t make this biological)of those who have extreme right inclinations that pulls them to this kind of thought. It’s a tendency to want to make America “first” and to take America first. Of course it is natural to take you home, the place where you were born or have chosen to be, first in your heart. But this cannot be done by pretending that other people and countries don’t matter. The fact that the US has a 2 century plus history of being “protected” by two of the largest oceans in the world has added to this feeling and made it more profound a part of our belief structure here than, I think, anywhere else. Unfortunately the facts are that it just won’t work, for reasons stated previously in this blog. I hope the Republicans will figure this out and get back on the ship of state that sails toward friendship and cooperation with others, particularly those who honor freedom. If they get back into power without some of them changing their minds they will invite something no one wants to see.
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Two for the Oscar–Well, Just One, Actually
I have seen only a few(four, I think)of the nominated movies and I am unlikely to get around to all(or any?)of the others. We’ll see. So here is where I stand so far. My choice for the award, based upon what I’ve seen, is undoubtedly “American Fiction.” ”Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Oppenheimer” have both gotten a lot more attention. Understandably–they are “big movies” with many well know big stars(to the extent that anyone is still a big movie star) and high production values, and both reek of money spent.
Both of these two are, I wish to state, very, very good films and I am not denigrating them. But next to “Fiction” they both seem a bit bloated, a bit overdone. And “Fiction,” which must have cost a great deal less, is so unpretentious and so on the mark in its humor/pathos, that it is easily my choice. Based upon a novel of a decade and a half ago, “Erasure,” by Percival Everett, director-screenwriter Cord Jefferson(with Everett) may have created not only a moving, entertaining, intelligent movie, but a statement of dissent for this time in America, dissent at least from the talk of the leftist literati, black and white, of the last 20 years or so.
Jeffrey Wright plays Thelonious “Monk” Ellison, a gifted black writer who is a successful college literature teacher. He is also a gifted writer who has published several books and gotten critical praise, but little in sales or public attention. He is dissatisfied with his lot, but he disdains the facile exploitation of black people by “artists” whose portrait seems to say they all live in ghettos and talk in jive. His mood is not improved when a new book is rejected by a publisher with the suggestion he write what might be described as “more black,” and his university employer gives him a temporary leave with the suggestion he explore his own culture further, more or less that he get in touch with himself
After a confrontation with black female writer Sintara Golden and others at a writer’s conference. he decides to take on his critics by writing a book that is so bad in its pandering to black extremists and white radical phonies that it will call attention to his point of view and amuse its readers. On the contrary, he is surprised (to put it quite mildly)when no one seems to “get it.” It is taken seriously to the extent that a publisher offers him three quarters of a million dollars as an advance.
Stunned and slightly cynical now, he offers to have it published if he can change the title name to F+++(I’m waiting for Trump to say the word in public–if he does I might consent to writing it). He doesn’t really expect this idea to go far, but, again to his surprise, they agree and the book is so published. But instead of his real name he agrees(after pressure from his agent)to use the name Stagg R Leigh, who the publisher announces(for public consumption) is a wanted convict and therefore will not make public appearances. It sells well and the left-leaning critics black and white(mostly white) fawn over it. In fact, it wins a literary award, from a writers’ panel which includes a somewhat reluctant Thelonius, and his sometime nemesis, Sintara Surprisingly they get along well.
At the awards ceremony, Theo decides to attend and reveal all. What happens then I leave to you to learn by viewing.
Now, a couple of comments on things left out, by me or others.–the rest of the cast includes Leslie Uggams as Theo’s mother. I remember her as a little girl on an old, old musical game show on TV(“Name That Tune?”)many years ago. Otherwise, the rest of the cast is largely unknown to me. Issa Rae is very good as the author who writes the kind of trash our hero hates, yet still seems to have some character of her own. Sterling K Brown is effective as Cliff, Theo’s brilliant and accomplished but depressed and searching brother. Erika Alexander is Coraline, Theo’s love interest and does a more than credible job of portraying a sensitive woman who knows she’s got a good man on her hands, but one it’s hard to know how to handle. There is not a poor or routine performance among them.
The hero’s nickname, “Monk,” will be known to many of you, and for the benefit of all who don’t know, Thelonious Monk was a mid-20th century jazz musician, one of the giants of that time who shared the jazz limelight with Miles Davis, Dave Brubeck, Duke Ellington, and other jazz icons. He was quoted as having said “A’int no bad sounds that come out of a piano”–or words to that effect anyway,
More sneaky and obscure is Theo’s choice, with some help, of the pseudonym of Stagg R Leigh. As far as I recall no mention is made in the film of the source of this name. Actually, “Stagger Lee” is an old American black blues song dating back at least a century, maybe more. It is supposed to be based on a true incident in 1895 St Louis is which a gambler named Stagger Lee shot Billy Lyons who grabbed Stagger Lee’s hat. It has been recorded more than 60 times by a variety of singers ranging from James Brown to Nick Cave to Neil Diamond. In the 1950’s Lloyd Price had a hit record with it. Nonetheless, I would wager, that most white Americans and maybe most blacks too could not today tell you who Stagger Lee was. In any event, I hope you will see this remarkably good film and cross your fingers for it to win. It would be a victory for restraint, good art and real tolerance for it to finish at the top.
Nothing similar could be said–not by me, at least–about “Poor Things.” If this Thing wins the Oscar it will be a travesty on taste and possibly on the direction of Western civilization. Now I realize I’m somewhat running against the wind here. This film has been widely and highly praised by critics and apparently has made a fair amount of money so far. It is nominated for a number of big awards by BAFTA and also by the by the Acaemy Awards people. It has already won big in some places–Golden Globes for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy and Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy. What? Musical or Comedy? Thinking of Rodgers and Hammerstein or Lerner and Lowe? Wrong thought, friends–no resemblance there. Nor with any other musical comedy team you can think of. Nor with any comedy writer I can think of. Go ask Mel Brooks–or the ghosts of Kauffman and Hart–or Aristophanes.
This is not a comedy in any sense I can discern. Music does play a role at one point, a scene I shall describe shortly–one of the few good things in the movie, or stick with me. But it’s by no stretch of the mind a musical. So I guess the award was for Comedy, but I laughed only at the negative side of the film. It was sort of funny that people thought it was funny. But I didn’t do that until after the film had ended.
It’s not as if the film has no merits at all. It’s well done in a technical sense. The photography and art direction are superb. This moving shots of various cities are impressive if sometimes bizrre And speaking of bizarre–
Well, a lot of critics have noted that the obvious influence and source here is “Frankenstein.” It’s actually based on a novel by Alasdair Gray which was published in 1992.. But “Frankenstein” is the guide. Bella Baxter(Emma Stone)is a young woman in what turns out to be Victorian London, although I wasn’t sure for awhile. It was 19th century, I thought, but where? Somewhere in Europe?(Yes)The other side of the moon?(No, but not an unreasonable guess). Anyway the “comedy” begins with her suicide by jumping off a bridge. She is brought back to life by the Franeknstein stand-in Dr Godwin Baxter(William Dafoe).
Dafoe’s character is not a normal human being. His appearance is that of a man who has been trampled by several herds of animals and then attacked by a knife-wielding maniac. This is put down in a very brief description of what would now be child-abuse writ large, but never mind.. In addition to this he is-uh, odd, perhaps entirely due to the abuse, perhaps not. But he’s also brilliant and ambitious to do new and great things. So he puts the brain of the young woman’s unborn fetus into the woman. She comes back to life and is now a grown woman with a child’s brain. She is also her own mother–or her own daughter? Well, never mind, it doesn’t matter
It is a sort of fascinating thing(about the only one in the whole film)watching Bella’s mind catch up with her body. There is no explanation for this, but it appears to happen rather swiftly–not right away, but months rather than years.
Soon, as she climbs toward full maturity, she accepts the blandishments of a creepy and degenerate lawyer(Mark Ruffalo) They go on a journey which takes them to several important European cities, rather like the centuries old “Grand tour” for young aristocratic men. But this tour seeks not knowledge of the past and of other countries, it seeks the bizaree and(unfortunately a lot of viewers will doubtless say)finds it. They dash from Athens to Paris with a number of other stops in between where they experience sex with so many people that I lost count, not that I cared much by then. The sex is, well, strenuous in many cases and more on this later.
Now at about this point I thought the movie just might redeem itself to some degree, anyway. It might be like “Afire,” (see my blog of Sep 6), which turned around from being a real drag and turned into a good film during about its last third. Bella is now at the point of just about full mental maturity and she has used it well. She starts to wonder about the world–what’s going on out there? What’s the meaning of it all? Why is there injustice? She even reads Ralph Waldo Emerson and apparently appreciates his writing(My guess would be that Ralph Waldo would not have appreciated being with her on this trip).
Anyway her attitudes and her conversation change. She become rational, perhaps even empathetic. There is the start of a metamorphosis here, one thinks. One is wrong–never happens. More specifically, there is one scene in Portugal which for a brief time I thought truly beautiful. The location of the scene was not clear to me. Maybe a concert hall, but the dancing couples seem to make that unlikely. Maybe a 19th century Lisbon version of a nightclub. Who knows? Nor does it matter. There are a lot of people together listening to what I thought some very beautiful music which I think could be roughly described as classical. Some of them are dancing, however, not something one usually does with Bach or Beethoven. The combination of the beautiful clothes and the gorgeous music is stunning, particularly when a woman accompaning herself on a stringed instrument of some sort begins to sing.
Although I’m not sure, I think she was doing a song from the Portuguese musical traditon known as “Fado.” Around for more than a century and a half now, Fado usually features a woman singing, accompanying herself. She sings a sad song about lost love, broken hearts, etc. Of course that’s the basis a lot of music world-wide, but Fado concentrates on this. As I said, I am not familiar enough with it to be sure, but I think that lady was perhaps singing Fado. Whatever, it was it was beautiful. I looked forward to hearing the whole song. It ran maybe 90 seconds. Oh, well. After that, it’s back to London and I don’t think I’ll go further than that(Hey, London’s almost always a good place to stay)
Now there are a few anomalies to explore. As you have no doubt discerned I dislike the film a great deal. There are two main reasons for it and they both have to do with excess and some other things. The two things that get to me are the ways in which it handles the physically visible aspects of a number of medical matters and the grossly inadequate job it does in portraying sex. These two would have been enough to ruin it for me even I hadn’t found the plot to be over-the-top ridiculous.
Dr Godwin is apparently a mentally perverted genius. He is not necessarily cruel in that thinks he’s doing good for mankind. But the film is loaded with close-ups of his work with the knife. Granted, they never let these scenes go on a very long time, but long enough you may become seriously disgusted or even sickened. I have no idea how many times you see a knife entering flesh and blood spurting as a result. It’s a lot and it’s way off putting, at the leas,t way more than needed to make the point that this is serious stuff. I was astounded to see that approximately 80%(the figure seems to change day to day)of Rotten Tomatoes fans liked the movie. I have to wonder why they liked it and why more of them weren’t turned off, Perhaps the gross violation of the individual body no longer bothers people much? Does this account for the behavior of so much of the world in solving conflicts, the sort of thing we experience daily on the media?
Then there’s the sex. This is one of the most sexually explicit films I have ever seen. And it manages to get it wrong, at least in attitude. We see Bela with a large number of people in sexual situations. Technically speaking I guess you could say most of them appear to be “normal” sex. But that is only so from a physical point of view. While it is impossible to imagine sex without physicality, it is a mistake to ignore other aspects of it–like emotional reactions. And here I think the movie misses by a wide mark. Now maybe it does exactly what the director wanted it to do, but it clearly does not portray sex accurately from any normal point of view. It is an excellent example of why, in court, witnesses are sworn to tell the “whole truth.” It is possible to lie just by leaving some things out.
To repeat, the film’s sex scenes are mainly normal in their physical portrayal. But totally lacking is a sense of the emotion which ought to be involved. Sex is both a physical and an emotional matter, and while you won’t get anywhere without the former you won’t get too far without the latter. The film has no sense of this. There is, I think, a sense in which good sex is an altered state of consciousness,. This being th4e case, one needs to be careful about portraying it as only physical relations. You need to show the emotional part too. This could include portraying the occasional smile and caress, by showing tenderness and gentleness along with the passion. This can be done more or less “realistically” or it can be suggested by imaginative use of the art of filming.
I remember a film from long ago, the “hippie” era, called “The Trip,” starring Peter Fonda, among others. It wasn’t much of a film and belongs in no hall of fame, but there was one part I liked. Sex was portrayed as part of the trip and therefore not too explicit on the screen. Oh, you could tell what was going on but you were also affected by the music and the poetically indefinite feeling created by the hazy, “unrealistic” and vague photography. The fact that this was sex while high is hardly important. It was easy to see that sex IS a high and in that way is more than just physical reality. Attempts to portray it as only physical are therefore bound to fail. I think that’s why the sex in this film is always “frank,” but never erotic. It’s largely a distasteful bore. If anyone uses this film as a sex manual they are likely to end up very disappointed–to say the very least.
Possibly the director, Yorgos Lanthimos,” knew perfectly well what he was doing and got exactly the effect he was going for. This is not unfeasible, it’s even highly believable in what seems to be both the public mind and the consciousness of critics today. today. But to a certain type of mentality–mine included-it’s offensive.
So these two things along with the unbelievability of the twists and turns of the plot are my main objections(Lanthimos tried an old-fashioned twist of plot ending which is surprising but not very interesting.) There were a couple of other peculiarities about this movie that put me off. The Dafoe character is both very odd and highly talented in his field as is obvious from the beginning. It is not, perhaps surprising, then, that his property should be filled with odd animals–a goose with four legs like a dog, some kind of bird(I think)which appears to be literally only half there, etc. I suppose this is not very important, but why not tell us about it?
Likewise there appeared to be some kind of air travel going on in the 19th century European cities they visited, or at least in some of them. Huh? Did I get that right? Perhaps they’re accepted as just mysteries. I find them mere additional bizarreness which is hardly what this film needs. By the way, I did read a lot of other peoples’ comments, both critics and public and you may want to do the same if anything about “Poor Things” sounds even vaguely interesting to you.
Well, there you have it for now. Go, “American Fiction” and get lost, “Poor Things.” Yes, that’s kind of oversimplified-but so very expressive.
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American Attitudes and Capital Punishment
The Vietnam War was the first war which brought to the American people on the home front what really was going on; this meant that even those most reluctant to look at the world honestly were hard pressed not to admit the brutality in it. This was largely because of pictures, mostly TV news coverage, which came into its own at about this time(that’s another blog subject, right there). But old-fashioned still photographs played a large role too and there were two which stand out in the memories of those of us who remember Vietnam and that whole time and experience.
One of them is of a naked little girl crying and running down a street while behind her bombs go off and there is incredible destruction. The juxtaposition of innocent childhood and horrifying violence was unforgettable. But I’ll bet almost as many would list as most memorable Eddie Adams’s brutally honest photograph of a South Vietnamese police official executing an accused Viet Cong terrorist by shooting him in the head at extremely close range.
This picture is relevant to what I have to say now in that it is honest and depicts unedited and unsweetened the violence of execution. One cannot look at it and not be made to shiver at the human condition. This is part of what I wish to address right now. I want to discuss the execution which took place last week in which the State of AL executed Kenneth Eugene Smith by use of nitrogen gas. I will get back to the Viet Nam photograph and its importance in due time.
Smith had committed a murder in 1988, a vicious murder for hire in which he had killed a woman for money. He was obviously a terrible person then. I don’t know what he was last week before they took his life. But I do know this. I am not quite willing to say I oppose capital punishment absolutely and in all ways at all times. There could be some exceptions. But they would be few. I hate this form of punishment and I am not fond of people, particularly politicians, who are cheerleaders for it. If you had to list me as an an opponent or supporter of capital punishment, “opponent” would be the right column.
But except for a brief time about a half century ago during which the US Supreme Court had forbidden it, capital punishment has been with the US since its inception and looks like staying for some time. (It had, of course, been with nearly all nations from their inception in the past, but the great majority have now dispensed with it). The question becomes–or at least a question arises–How is it to be carried out?I wish we didn’t have to answer this question but the fact is we do, so here are some thoughts. Throughout history there have been many brutal and intentionally cruel executions.(Somewhat counter-intuitively, the viciousness seems to have reached its height not during the supposedly gruesome Middle Ages, but during the presumably more compassionate Renaissance–not everything, apparently was better) Others simply took life without regard to the pain involved or, perhaps. in spite of it. There have been attempts to make it more humane.
One way of keeping capital punishment legal is to protect people from grasping how awful it is, how likely not only to cause suffering when inflicted, but how inclined to degrade those who order it and those who carry it out, and indeed how it coarsens and cheapens the entire society that allows this. One way of preventing people from thinking about this a great deal is to shield them from it, the way older relatives often(and frequently stupidly)try to shield children from the harsher realities of life. This means not too exact descriptions of the execution itself. Use the relatives of the prisoner and the relatives of the victim for whose death he is being executed. Describe their faces and their reactions and get some quotes from them. But be careful of describing the execution in too much detail. Concentrate on the fact of what happened, but less on the details; do not allow the middle middle(sic) class ladies to whom life is a long tea party and people are all “nice” or “not nice” to learn too much of this rather extreme example of not niceness.
This would be particularly true of photography. Don’t let the photographers too close, discourage pictures of the the actual execution and the pain that may be involved, and don’t upset the reader/viewer with too much nastiness. If they ever really turned on nastiness who knows who or what they’d go after and with what results?So while you cannot treat this in any way lightly, don’t let it get too degraded–too offensive–too off putting to your customers. Keep them protected–keep them happy or at least not too unhappy Don’t let then think about the man who carries out the duty and his family and friends. Don’t let them think about his humanity or lack thereof or what he does in his spare time, or what the duty does to him and those who love him. And if you keep the reporting clean, then likely most of them won’t think about it whole lot.
In the days of the internet this gets a little harder to do, particularly as restrictions, legal or prudential, apply less and less., There are some fairly graphic descriptions of Smith’s execution available. USA Today ran a story in which it recounted the following details–The execution took about 22 minutes. “Smith appeared to convulse and shake vigorously for about four minutes after the nitrogas began flowing …” It took another two or three minutes before he seemed to lose consciousness.
Through this all he appeared to be gasping. None of us knows of course, for certain, how long he was conscious or to what extent he was conscious. So we use our own judgement–or guesses–as to how bad this was. But as for me, I simply think that it was terrible and it should never have happened. If the state is going to execute people, surely its enough to take their lives. Torture should not be part of the process and any government which pursues a policy that intentionally or not includes torture degrades itself, its people and their civilization.
It’s not hard to kill someone humanely, assuming that such a thing can be done in a humane fashion at all. There are lots of ways you could do it. A blunt instrument, for example or a shot in the head. And now we are close to getting back to the Adams photo from Vietnam, aren’t we? I think that the whole issue here has something to do with not getting blood on our hands–literally, particularly, but also figuratively as far as possible. This means being(willfully?)ignorant of facts. And that’s why the Vietnam photograph is such a straightforward part of what I mean. Largely protected by this attitude, we want to go on as if nothing much has happened, as if the executions were carried out quietly and efficiently and the condemned man died quickly and without being tortured.
But too much honesty brings doubts about this point of view. The thing about the Vietnam picture is that it does two things important to our subject and they are somewhat contradictory. It depicts an execution by handgun in which a South Vietnamese police commander shot a suspected Viet Cong terrorist in the head at short range, almost no range. The picture was snapped simultaneously with the shot. The condemned man appears to be in great pain. The executioner may well have quite literally gotten blood on himself. This is the sort of thing to be avoided if you want to avoid controversy about capital punishment
But conversely, it shows something else. It shows the prisoner in extreme pain, but any rational person looking at it should note that the pain was almost certainly very short–like about 2 seconds. So there is a way in which the picture works both sides of the street. It both shows us the brutal violence and also shows a way of execution that would be, if not painless, then at least mercifully short. There would not be any physical torture involved.
So where does this leave us? Sadly about where we were. I will say this further about the Viet Nam picture. It shows, to repeat myself, two things. Execution is a violent, awful thing. But, secondly, however violent and gory it is as it happens, it is possible that it can be done quickly and without prolonged torture. Regarding the first, the efforts to suppress the details–admittedly not widespread and not very successful– usually don’t work and probably wouldn’t even if they were more seriously pursed. . Their main effect, in fact, may be to provide an additional thrill to those who, for whatever, perverse reason, actually enjoy pictures of violence and killing. The ones who are considered persuadable may not be so to a very great extent. Anyway, that’s how I perceive the opinions of officialdom. I doubt if they work much but, however hypocritical, they go on. A lot of “nice people” simply won’t look, they’ll simply tune into “Hallmark” and forget it..
The second thing about the Vietnam picture is actually, I think, more important in what it says about us as a people. One of the things that infuriates me most about capital punishment in our country is that millions of dollars are spent trying to figure out “humane” ways of doing this with drugs of some kind. Despite this US capital punishment nonetheless almost surely sometimes induces pain, perhaps torture. The Rev. Jeffrey Hood, who ministered to Smith in his last days, said he had no doubt that the thing was torture. He called it the most horrible thing he’d ever seen. And this could be so much simpler and humane(Yes, I know, each state would have to make its own law on this OR the US Supreme Court would have to set some boundaries–not easy and not impossible) But why not something like the photograph shows? Tie the condemned in a chair. The executioner, standing by with a loaded pistol, would then shoot him in the side of the head at a range of about a foot. It would be over in a few seconds or less. Or he could use a large club which would be even quicker.
But something in the public mind rebels at this. I guess we want to think we’re too “nice” to do that–a violent act at close range in which the identity of the executioner is not hidden and for which everyone, to some extent is responsible. But, no, we want to hide it away–have it done by some kind of weird drug combination which may not work well and which may cause torture. But nobody gets blood on themselves, literally, in the process, or figuratively, and therefore the society feels itself less guilty
If you insist on drugs, how about a bit of common sense? Give them a huge overdose of one of the many drugs which are certain death if taken in excess and accompanied by a large amount of alcohol. This would also, for what it’s worth, be less expensive. It would also put an end to drawn out legal cases over what form of execution should be allowed. So why not be both merciful and sensible and use one or more of the more humane choices? There are quite possibly other ways than those I have suggested. Feel free to make comments on that and think about the whole question. Let’s make executions in our country a thing of the past or at least so rare that they will almost never occur. And if that’s a long term plan or an impossible one , let’s make them less brutal. It’s the kindest thing for everyone involved– including the “nice” people.
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Where do we go from here?
This is the question left to the country after the NH primary. It settled some things but left others still in doubt. Like Fareed Zakaria on CNN news I have a “take” on some things and here is mine on NH and more broadly, the Presidential contest after NH
How is Trump doing with his party?–Pretty well, I’d have to say. He has somewhere between 1/3 and half of Republicans in his pocket and can do pretty much whatever he wants and keep them and their voting power. He is also widely followed and even respected and admired by a fair number of Republican voters who don’t quite fall into category no 1. His one serious issue within the party is that despite the foregoing, there are still a lot of Republicans(maybe close to 50% of them according to the NH stats)who mistrust him.
This mistrust is no doubt deeper among some than others, and it is difficult to guess at what the percentages are there. Also, NH is less likely to be a Trump state than a lot of others(SC, for example)which further complicates matters. But on the whole, I’d say he has to worry some about at least 1/3 of rank and file Republicans who still have their doubts. It is likely that many will come around eventually and be back in the tent before election day. But how many, and in what states?
What can be stated for sure is that Trump is the dominant voice(the only one)in the Republican party now and he has the party machinery and its large wealth at his beck and call. He is likely to use both to his advantage in the campaign.
How is Trump doing with other voters?–Outside the GOP its harder to measure this. Using NH as a measure, however, and some polling elsewhere, it appears he is doing badly, as would be expected, among Democrats. This is likely not much of a worry to the Republicans, but what might be is that he seems to be fairly badly among independents at the moment. This could change, of course, but he did not do well with them in NH where he lost about 60% of their votes. This is likely to be a close Presidential election and he needs more than that performance would show he’s getting among them to be competitive. Obviously he might do better among independents elsewhere than he did in NH but he needs to take advantage of any opportunity with them. This will be harder to do if he continues to get more shrill and contentious as he seems to have done in the last day or so with Haley. He may be the first Presidential candidate ever to turn nasty during a victory statement. He appeared to be too thin skinned to accept an 11-point victory if it was not followed by surrender from his opponent.
How is Biden doing with his own party?-He is also doing pretty well if he keeps the question to his own folks, the Democrats. In fact, it looks as if he might make a plausible case that he does better among Dems than Trump does with Republicans. For complex reasons we won’t pursue here and now, Biden’s name was not on the NH ballot. But a write-in campaign was organized to keep him from being embarrassed by the results and without campaigning he ran up something in excess of 80% of the vote. MN multi-millionaire Dean Phillips finished with a feeble less-than-20%. Of course it is not impossible that other challenges may appear inside the party, but the chances of a serious one seem low.
How does Biden do elsewhere?–Well, he’s not encouraged by this as much as by the party, but it could be worse. He has had startlingly low approval ratings, particularly considering the low unemployment rate. This seems to be from a number of causes, two in particular. Those would be the(mis?)perception of the US economy’s status and personal doubts about the President’s competence.
The economic issue has been contentious for sometime and is complicated. No reasonable person can complain about low unemployment, consistently below 4%. But not many seem to be noticing much. Come to think of it the US has not had a bad unemployment time that lasted very long for more than 40 years. The rise in unemployment that began with the Carter and Volker team’s anti-inflation drive peaked during 1981 and unemployment topped out at around 10%. It is not much remembered now, but Reagan was fairly unpopular for about the first year he was in office because of rising unemployment.(It wasn’t all his fault but as usual the guy at the top takes most of the heat) People in the 40-65 age range constitute a huge portion of the US electorate, but the majority of them have no or only a vague memory of this time. One hopes that they never have to find out that however difficult inflation may be, recessions are usually worse.
The economy is very complicated and clearly paying more at the gasoline pump or the check out line at the supermarket are financially painful and not inclined to help incumbents. But gasoline prices have tended downward in recent weeks and inflation overall looks just a tad better. Also, there has been a small uptick in Biden’s popularity with the public. It is a not unreasonable thought that there could be a connection here. If the better economy continues, the Dems are almost certain to profit from it.
The issue of Biden’s ability to do the job is difficult. l personally, I don’t doubt that mentally he is up to it. He actually has a fairly long list of accomplishments, mostly economic and mostly not immediately impactful, which attracts little attention and support. He appears to have played an active role in bringing this about. And his speeches are usually coherent and well delivered. Despite his long term- and still there- tendency to the occasional gaffe, he usually makes sense and shows balance. The same cannot be said for Trump who often appears to be mentally out of control, particularly when he is angry and petulant about something. Since this seems to be a lot of the time this is quite manifest, the most recent example being his graceless and self-centered “victory speech” I mentioned above. We all feel anger from time to time, but a person who can’t control his has no business in the Presidency.
Biden’s greatest weakness in his presentation of himself to the public, however, does have to do with his age. Although I’m not personally that much worried about it, he gives and impression of lack of energy. He seems tired much of the time, not incapable of thinking or planning at all, but perhaps not tops at pushing things, pursuing ideas and plans and, frankly, intimidating people as a President sometimes needs to do. I think he would be likely to do OK with this in a second term but there may be a lot of members of the public who would disagree with me. A number of people, who might otherwise vote Democratic, might withhold their Presidential vote or vote for another candidate. A few might vote for Trump.
Trump, on the other hand, has a powerful voice and manages to exude self confidence even when saying something ridiculous. He sounded very authoritative the other night while confusing Haley and Pelosi. How this plays with the public I don’t know. I like to tell myself they most of them will eventually see and reject his mistakes and bluffs, but I say nothing for sure about this.
Three is still a long way to go in getting delegates. Is it all over on the Republican side? No, there’s still room for Trump to make a serious mistake and it is always possible(though this appears less and less likely)that the various prosecutions of Trump might bring to light information that would cost him votes. The smart money seems to be going on the idea that nothing will come of those cases in various courts until after the election. Time will tell.
Regardless, here’s a nightmare scenario for the US and the world. Suppose little if anything comes out from the court cases before the elections. Trump is elected. Then, shortly after the election information begins to emerge from the prosecutions(Jack Smith’s is the best bet)that Trump did in fact commit serious crimes. But now he’s President-elect and any attempt to stop his ascendency to the Presidency will almost surely result in legions of Proud Boys and other semi-lunatics in the street? What do you suppose would be the next big thing?
Well, there’s still a lot of time. There’s no need to go into deep depression yet. Just watch what’s happening and rather than keeping your powder dry, keep your minds alert.
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Long evening but short answers
It was a long evening if you chose to watch last night. I chose not to after the first reports established that Trump was going to win easily, something about 90% of the serious viewers were expecting. I might have watched a little more if the combination of a long, cold, hard day and a couple of glasses of dry sherry hadn’t given me an unexpected hour and a half or so of sleep. But it made no difference in that I missed little if anything of import.
All of us who watched knew Trump was going to win big–the only question was how big? The answer turned out to be a lot, though not quite an avalanche or even a landslide. The real importance is that it was enough–more than enough–to established that Trump is the only dominant leader in this new(??)GOP that has emerged in the last decade or so. Since he more than doubled the combined vote totals of DiSantis and Haley, and since there are no big name Republicans sitting on the sidelines who might aspire to party leadership of one kind or another, he is firmly in charge.
At the same time the win is not quite overwhelming as an indication he owns the party–not yet, anyway. That will take at least one more try, obviously in NH, to determine. His total last night came to 51% which is impressive, but still means that nearly half the participants voted for somebody else. The question is, how many of these people would be OK with voting for Trump if he gets the nomination, how many would be outraged and possibly refuse to vote for him, and how many would fall in between those two extremes. This may be difficult to decide and take some time
But it may not matter much in the long run. Likely Trump is going to get the nomination, though he leaves IA with only an 11 delgate lead so far. But DiSantis’s campaign looks to be about done. He is not likely to do well in NH, a state which follows his ideas to a rather small extent, in politics, economics, cultural issues or whatever. And if he doesn’t do well, say runs a poor third there, it might be folding up the tent time, or at least time to quit talking as if his nomination is likely or even within hailing distance of being likely. In other words he must do well in NH or it’s almost certainly the end of his chances for the nomination.
Nicky Haley finished third, not far behind DiSantis. That is respectable considering the polls of several months ago which showed her far behind. But I’m pretty sure she hoped for better than her 19.1% of the votes, 2.1% behind the beleaguered FL governor. She and her people are attempting to put a positive spin on this and they may succeed to some degree. But she is short of where she and her supporters had hoped to be and NH is likely her last serious chance to establish herself.
Of course, she might succeed. NH people are independent and largely moderate to liberal in many of their opinions. And, very importantly, NH has an easy open primary where a registered voter gets to chose their party ballot without fuss or hassle. This means a lot of Democrats and Independents could flock into the GOP primary where few of them would vote for Trump or DiSantis. So this means Haley might get a boost from moderate reminded Republicans and a few outsiders. As we have previously noted, the most recent poll showed her within single digits of Trump and a victory could liven her campaign considerably. Even a small loss of one or two points might help. I have mentioned these possibilities before, but they bear repeating because NH is likely the last chance for stopping the Trump juggernaut. Slow him down there or it’s likely all over.
Well, except that there are still those court cases out there. The civil case regarding a defamation issue with writer E Jean Carroll opened today and Trump(unnecessarily, legally speaking)attended. This one, given the public’s tolerance for Trumpian misbehavior is likely to give the country more light than heat and little enough of that. As I mentioned the other day, I think Jack Smith is the one who has the goods on Trump. But as time goes on it appears more and more likely that Trump’s people will keep this potentially damaging case out of the public’s mind until after the election. Then it will be too late to change much.
So, I think the US is heading for another Trump-Biden race. There are, as noted above, a couple of places where the former President could stumble, but it looks less and less likely. Biden faces no such challenges, only the ones imposed upon him by age and appearance, and, just as importantly, by the public’s apparent ignorance of his accomplishments and unwillingness to acknowledge that there are ways in which things are getting better, economically. This means a long but not very exciting time for politics junkies and news people, but it appears now that this election season may be fairly dull–until the election is on the horizon. Then–well, it’s anyone’s guess. In the meantime remember the often quoted Chinese curse of centuries ago–“may you live in interesting times.”
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Leader AWOL, competitors nervous
The last debate begore the primary/caucus season begins is tonight in Iowa. Far from the stage full of Republican hopefuls we saw a few months ago, we are now down to two, one time SC Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and FL Gov Ron DeSantis. Not that there aren’t others who are still trying. The most notable of these is one time NJ Gov Chris Christie, who didn’t meet the requirements for getting on camera this time.
But he’s still the only announced GOP candidate who is willing to say out and out what he thinks of Trump. And to hear him tell it, he’s not going anywhere. And he is, I think, likely telling the truth on that. He usually does, however odd that makes him among Republican leaders.
The obvious MIA candidate is former President and current front runner Donald J Trump who is supposed to hold some campaign event this evening while the debate is going on. Trump has been said to be perfectly happy to stay out of the debates as long as he maintains his lead. This strategy has served him well enough so far, but I do think there may be a time limit on it. Unless he can wrap things up quickly, some people, even some Trump people, may begin to ask uncomfortable questions, such as “Why won’t he go on TV with the others? What’s he think he would be risking?”
These are reasonable enough questions and likely ones Trump and his people don’t want to have to answer. They may not have to, but I’ll bet a shiver went through them when that poll was released yesterday that showed Haley had closed in on him in New Hampshire to the point where his once 20+ point lead had faded to single digits.
Now I know IA is not NH and that their way of choosing a candidate in their “caucus” is unusual, not to say unique. I also know that the IA results are often confusing and frequently have temporarily put the brakes on apparently successful campaigns–but usually only temporarily. But the NH news still has to be disturbing. What if IA, always a wild card, yields a different winner than Trump, or anyway a smaller than expected victory? And then he goes on to lose NH or win it by only a couple of points?
I personally feel that the court cases against him are potentially damaging. Jack Smith seems to have the real goods on him and I think the information from that trial might be enough to sink Trump’s chances. But his tactics of delay look as if they are going to work and the facts won’t get out until after the election. If he should win the election and then the facts get out before the inauguration and are damaging, the US could face a very dicey situation, which might call on both(or all?)sides to exercise the greatest restraint and good will. And good luck with that one.
As to tonight, it may be interesting–maybe not. DiSantis has never seemed to me to be anywhere near presidential material and while his public persona has improved slightly as his people have taught him how to present himself, he still doesn’t look like a President to me. Since he is trying to be the Trump who isn’t Trump there are likely to be few big surprises.
Haley is obviously the superior of the two in intelligence and personality and could score a knockout, though knocking out DiSantis with Trump still leading could be meaningless in the long run. She has handled herself well most of the time, though she had to work her way through a downer when she flubbed that Civil War question. It should have been obvious that the most sensible and patriotic thing to say(and also most likely, the most politically astute one)was that the root cause was slavery, though you could make it a bit more complicated by discussing constitutional issues–like secession.
I look forward to hearing both of them quizzed on two things–immigration, particularly the mess on our southern border, and foreign policy/national security, particularly Ukraine-and Gaza and the Houthis and Iran, and ISIS and–well, you get the idea. Biden is vulnerable on the southern border issue since his administration seems to have failed to find anything approaching an effective and desirable approach for three years. Of course the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama/Trump administrations failed for around a quarter of a century, but the situation is worse now and obviously something new is needed. It may be interesting to see what the two competitors tonight have to say.
On the other foreign policy issues Biden has done well(except for Afghanistan)and his main trouble, like with much of his domestic policy, is getting the word out. It should be at least mentioned, of course, that both the Ukraine issue and the mess in Gaza are dangerous flashpoints and one or both of them could explode. There is the potential for real trouble with each of them and the Republicans in Congress, particularly in the House of Representatives, are not looking cooperative.
When it comes to foreign policy DiSantis has pretty much followed the Trump line, to the extent you can find a coherent one. Halley has shown much more common sense and understanding of the difficulties the world and therefore the US face at this time and has also shown some interest in and possibly talent for, coping with them. This may not be a big part of this evening’s exercise, but be alert to the possibilities.
Personally, I look forward to both the spin from supporters and the analysis from reporters. I might try of little bit of that myself.
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My animal(s)
I have to go with the cat–or cats, if you will–when I was growing up it was definitely uncool for guys to like cats. But I did and still do.(Actually, TV commercials seem to be trying to indicate guys can be cat-lovers too, now–progress!!)Actually, I’m one of those (unusual?)people who deeply loves both dogs and cats, but I also have to be a cat-man if forced to choose. I love their purring and their supposed indifference to people which for some becomes a deep love–I love their tendency to feel out your feelings and treat you accordingly–I love the cat curled in my lap or with his paws on my chest, kneading me a little bit(OK–small ouch)-I love the glow of mystery and privacy that always surrounds cats, but that they share with you in their own way and at their own time and pace–As a member of ASPCA I donate and fight for all animals, but cats are first, last and always my friends-JBP
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Some reading at Christmas–but maybe not Christmas reading
Like last year I have chosen to tell you about some reading I think you might find enjoyable and/or inspiring and/or interesting. It is not “Christmas reading”in the the way people usually use that term since it has nothing directly to do with Christmas. But since it invites you into the considerations of religious philosophy–questions about faith, doubt, meaning etc I think it may be said to fit the season–or at least some of it will–could depend upon your mood.
I LIKE ANN LAMOTT A LOT
Anne Lamott, “Hallelujah Anyway Rediscovering Mercy”, copyright 2017, Riverhead Books, 176 pages
If you read my article on Anne Lamott about a year ago, or if you’ve read some of her since, then you sort of know what to expect. You know this wasn’t a book written for people who think every religious expression should be couched in terms acceptable in a grade school level Sunday school class. Well, Anne is obviously very fond of young children, but that’s not her style. If there’s such a thing as a hard-boiled(if soft hearted)religious writer with a flair for (sometimes slightly raunchy)humor, then she’s it. So enjoy
Anne begins this one by observing there are times in just about every life during which the person needs help or answers or something along that line. But where do you look, particularly if you’ve already experienced some of the usual answers and found them unsatisfactory? She quotes the Old Testament prophet Micah who she opines likely looked like a stoner and smelled like a goat, But he asked, famously, what we needed to do but “do justice and love mercy,and walk humbly with thy God.”
Now I’m sure a lot of religious writers have quoted this, but then followed with advice that was pietistic or unrealistic or both. But Anne won’t do that to you because she’s honest with herself about herself and so she’s honest with the reader too, “Right off the bat I can tell you that ‘walk humbly with thy God’ is not going to happen anytime soon for me or my closest friends. Arrogance R Us”(She reversed the R but I can’t)
So, you now know to a large extent who you are dealing with here. A woman who won’t take BS and won’t lay any on you. She knows her own feeling and failings and she know those of her friends and she knows those of the human race. And she has developed around 2000 opinions and several hundred jokes about them. And she’s fallen into the clutches of BS sometimes and has tasted failure and addiction, abandonment and depression But “Hallelujah Anyway.”
Her book is a kind of rambling reflection on life and what it’s taught her. It is vaguely but not more than vaguely chronological. She often gives you specifics of experiences and then explains how she dealt with them–or, sometimes, failed to deal with them. Her writing, as always, is fast and uncomplicated, though the lady and her thoughts are certainly not.
On p 48 she tells us “The path away from judgement of self and neighbor …requires giving and, horribly, receiving. Going without either of them leads to fundamentalism of all stripes, and fundamentalism is the bane of poor Mother Earth.” There’s no way out, sometimes she says, except admitting that you’re wrong and and sorry. You don’t want to. It’s hard to do.
“But I can’t launch forgiveness of my own volition …To have borne broken hearts and seen such broken lives around the world is what gave us a shot at becoming mercy people.”
Later Anne tells us the story of the Good Samaritan. Nearly everyone knows the story, but she goes over all the main points just in case you’ve forgotten, ending with an explanation of how the Samaritan got the injured man to an Inn-Keeper “who welcomed them both.”
Then she adds, “Who is our neighbor? The person who helps us when we are suffering. And implicit in this story is Jesus saying, you go do this too. …The reviled Samaritan might be …a person at the other end of the poitical spectrum. In Texas it would be a drag queen tottering up to a Tea Partier in a ditch …Those who have gotten sober all began as the man in the ditch …But they also wanted us to extend ourselves to our own horrible selves …It was and is the hardest work ever. ” And as a recovering alcoholic of many years standing, Anne knows.
And so it goes. Anne knows the bottoms and the tops, has seen them both, lived them both, and survived to tell the tale. Now married for the first time and trying to stay on good terms with a 29 year old son who inherited some of her instability, she’s doing OK–maybe. But nothing is easy–or has been in her past.
“I converted to Christianity while I was drunk … and about a year later, several months sober, I was baptized.” She phoned her pastor first and said she couldn’t go through with it, she was too damaged and foul to do it. He told her “to get my butt over to church, that I wasn’t going to heal sitting alone on my …houseboat. He said that I didn’t have to get it together before I could be included, and, in fact, couldn’t get it together without experiencing inclusion.” So she went ahead with it and therein hangs a tale, some of which you’ve just heard. Of course some of it turns up in nearly everything she has written, too.
She particularly makes her point in her final chapter which begins with the statement that mercy began to reach out to her when she was five. She was with her father who was fishing with another man. The other man made a crack about her hair.
“Then he used the most evil word on earth, in a declaration about who must have been hiding in the woodpile. And my dad, the love of my life … laughed.” Her father did nothing and later said nothing to her to indicate he thought the other guy was a jerk and he just wanted to placate him. He noticed than Anne was feeling terrible on the way home and suggested she grow thicker skin. “This would turn out to be the battle cry of my childhood. I should have thicker skin, i.e., just be someone else entirely.”She carried this anger and pain for years and one day during a psychoanalytic session, a revelation came to her-“And I suddenly saw and could feel in my adult heart that my father had viewed the fisherman as a harmless, helpless, jovial, ignorant redneck. He was not colluding with him but understanding him. …I forgave myself for the fisherman’s words and behavior.”
And her message, sometimes stated pretty outwardly, sometimes not, is there. We all have needs and we all have bad feelings and sometimes do wrong things. Try to understand those who have wounded you, but don’t forget in the process to forgive yourself.
“The world keeps going on. You can have yet another cup of coffee and keep working on your plans. Or you can take the risk to be changed, surrounded, and indwelled by that strange yeasty mash called mercy, there for the asking.”Sound too easy? Maybe, but try it sometime–may be harder than you think–and more rewarding. In any event, hats off to Anne Lamott for showing us a way nearly all of us knew was there somewhere, but which most of us likely forgot along the way.