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The Ghosts of Movies Past–The Uninvited
I originally thought of this title for a series about old films some time ago and I guess the title came to me by way of memories of “A Christmas Carol.” But I waited long enough to begin, that it now fits the season of Halloween. By “ghosts” here, I mean mostly the former, the lingering effect of films, both in the minds of individuals and in the rather ephemeral but I think important national subconscious-at least the subconscious of movie fans. So I begin with two kinds of ghosts to talk about, the effect of a movie and the subject of the movie itself.
“The Uninvited(1944), is, technically, an American film but it sure seems like a British one. Set in Cornwall in the spring-summer of 1937, it concerns a brother and sister(Ray Milland and Ruth Hussey)who, while on vacation, discover a large, long deserted house and become determined to buy it. He is a London music critic and composer and she is, apparently, independently well to do. They pool their resources and succeed in getting the house, purchasing it from the owner, a crusty old carryover from Victorianism(Donald Crisp), and also come into contact with his overprotected and somewhat intimidated granddaughter, Stella(Gail Russell).
The film, like most at the time, and fortunately, I think, in this case, is in black and white. It begins with a wide-vision shot of the sea and the audience gets to see white caps as the waters come ashore on the rocks. They also get to hear the sound of this. Meanwhile, they hear Milland doing a voice-over regarding the coasts of lands that border this part of the sea and their propensity for providing a background for ghostly events. This all sets the scene nicely and puts the viewer in an agreeable tingly mood.
I will not go into the film in great detail here, but you need to know a little of what happens. The granddaughter, much against her Grandfather’s wishes, makes friends, barely, with the two Londoners. She and Milland seem to have a quick, closeness between them, and the stage seems set for romance, particularly when Milland writes her a song. But instead there is uncertainty and fear(“Stella By Starlight” became a jazz/Great American Songbook hit–you still might hear Miles Davis’s and other versions of it on Sirius “Real Jazz”)
On the first night brother and sister are together in their new home, Milland hears the sound of a woman sobbing. His sister explains that during the weeks he was cleaning up details in London and she was civilizing the house, she heard this several times, and no, it’s not Lizzie, the housekeeper, whose cat behaved oddly and refused to go upstairs. “It comes from everywhere and nowhere,” she says. Yes, indeed.
Without going into revealing details, I will merely say that this is the beginning of a tense and compelling ghost story that does not terrify you with nut cases running around with chainsaws, but may make your hair re-arrange itself a couple of times and send through you a couple of chills, so you feel as if you had just come inside on a cold winter day. Questions are asked and not, immediately, anyway, answered. The history of the house is studied and eventually, after quite a bit of tension and suspense, there are a number of ghostly manifestations(along with some explanations, too).
If you check this out on-line you will find many people praising it. But some regard it as weak stuff, nothing like today’s “shock” films with noise, blood and violence. This is, in my opinion, a good thing. This movie is not about physical violence. It is about subtle, spiritual and psychological haunting and the different but still chilling fear it can bring. It is way more sophisticated than the gross chop ’em to bits type. It is by far my favorite supernatural film–“The Haunting” from the 1960’s would be second, but for all its qualities it is not equal to this.
Part of the reason for this film’s excellence is found in the efforts of the director, Lewis Miller. Every scene seems to fit, to be an integral part of the story. The appearance and atmosphere of the house are allowed to play a significant role, but one you see or sense in the background, just part of the scenery of chills. When the manifestations do appear, they are not clear–they are foggy and indistinct, like something from a dream or a surrealist artist, as if telling us that this is not just a matter of other people, it’s other people from outside our reality, but real and perhaps threatening all the same.
Given the movie’s age you might expect to creak a little bit–and it does, but only slightly. Some of the romance is a bit contrived and the attempts at humor are clearly several decades behind the curve. But these count little, they are a small part of the overall story, maybe 5% or less of the movie. And there is the brief presence of the elegant and unusual Cornelia Otis Skinner who in a very busy life acted a little bit and maybe should have more. Her teacher/counsellor is a combination of authoritarianism and doubtful sanity that you won’t forget.
This is not a movie for people who want to be “shocked” by violence and mayhem and screaming. It is about the mystery and spookiness of encountering the supernatural and trying to figure it out, and being both afraid on one hand and anxious to learn on the other. It’s a film for people who like mystery in the most serious and meaningful sense of the term, the kind that sneaks up on you after midnight, and spooks your mind and soul rather than threatening your body. In an era where so many movies have the grossest violence with almost no subtlety at all, it is a reminder of civilized behavior and presumes it can exist among both those of flesh and blood and the wandering spirits. Try it, you might really like it.
(Other than the common title, this film has nothing to do with the one made in the late 2000’s, maybe 2009 or thereabouts. I watched about 20 or 25 minutes of it once which was enough to determine that 1) The stories are not connected and 2) I was wasting my time)
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Well, it was a start
I am starting this blog Thu afternoon, the day after the first of the Republican Presidential debates. I watched some of CNN this morning and I have taken a quick look at the NYT. Other than that I have not studied the responses of others, so what you get here is pretty much me with perhaps a little outside influence. What I intend to tell you is, mainly, my immediate reactions. Maybe I’ll do more on the details fairly soon
My impressions begin with a ranking of how they did–I would say Haley was No 1 followed by Christie, Pence, DiSantis, Hutchinson, Burgman, Scott, and Ramaswamy in that order. This is not, I note, exactly the order others have chosen and I am ambiguous about a few of them myself. But please remember, this is about first impressions. I do remember a sign in a high school room that said “The first impression is the lasting one,” and that may be true occasionally–maybe here. But things, particularly political things tend to change quickly.
Nikki Haley seemed to be the leader of the evening. She was smart and organized, tough minded but polite, and knew her stuff coming and going. Of course I did not agree with everything she said, but she did say some things that needed to be heard. The most important of these was to point out the nearly 8 trillion dollar addition the Trump Administration made to the national debt. The second was her impassioned plea for a strong US stance to defend Ukraine, Europe and freedom. On this issue she deserved credit for giving Ramaswamy a well-deserved hard time. No, Nikki, I don’t plan to vote for you but if you win at least there will be someone competent in charge.
Chris Christie deserved more credit than he seems, at glance, to be getting. He’s a tough but rational and mostly polite debater. Like Nikki one of the best things about him is that he clearly knows what he’s talking about in an era when that is not necessarily the case. He was not mostly asked questions that played to his strength, but he still managed to be extremely critical of the Trump Administration without going outside the bounds of apparent facts, common sense, and common civility. Good job, Chris–maybe next time they’ll give to chance to show a bit more oomph. If they don’t, just take it.
Mike Pence surprised me some, though I had noticed in recent weeks that he was sounding more confident in rejecting some parts of the Trump Administration and also just in presenting himself. He sounded very much like someone who knows his ground–and hey, he should be, he’s a recent Vice-President. He even showed a slight tendency toward wandering into irony and sarcasm in his assault on Ramaswamy who had the misfortune to be located next to Haley and only one Ron DiSantis from him.
DiSantis didn’t seem all that great to me but he was a whole lot better (or a lot less awful)than I was expecting. He began with a good deal of at least the appearance of self confidence. The things he had to say were largely as expected and I was not impressed, but I did think the presentation was better than my anticipation–guess you could call it a victory of low expectations. I thought he got weaker as the evening went along, though some of that may be that I think he slipped more and more into his routine rhetoric which we’ve all heard and some of us have heard quite enough.
Hutchinson, Burgum and Scott came in that order as my 5th, 6th and 7th choices, but there wasn’t a whole lot to choose among them. None of them said anything I found really inspiring or compelling or showed any extraordinary insight into our national(or international) difficulties. None of them showed any signs of being an outstanding orator. You could re-arrange them in those three positions and I wouldn’t complain. Burgam did have one pretty good moment when(speaking, I guess, as the only clearly rural, non-city person in the group)suggested that the wisdom that comes from running a state full of farms and small towns might sometimes come in handy too.
The most disappointing by far was Ramaswamy. Of course you know who did a blog slightly praising him the other day. At the time I did make it clear I was talking about his speaking ability and the overall impression he gave, not his ideas. I went so far as to compare him to JFK based on peraonality, looks and attitude, and using those criteria I was likely right, but …
Last night Ramaswamy spent most of his on camera time praising Trump and talking about Trump’s foreign policy in glowing terms. While he made a bow or two toward some more traditional American diplomatic instincts, he was very up front about the fact that he thought money spent on Ukraine was largely wasted and that he thought they were not enough of our national defense commitment to be concerned about.
Well, two things about that Vivek–although I am not an advocate of getting into as many wars as possible and think we should be very circumspect about committing our combat forces, there is such a thing as honor and protecting smaller nations from larger, bullying ones. Your colleagues Haley, Pence and Christie I think made this clear to you last night. If not, see my blog from this past Saturday.
I will concede that Ramaswamy’s take on China as potentially dangerous to us is correct. But he insists on emphasizing that it is “Communist” China which is true in a technical sense and they’re still pretty totalitarian. But they’re well on their way to a “mixed economy” and to call it a communist nation is an exaggeration, presumably used to bring back the hysterical right-wing anti-Communism of years ago, even though there are only three even allegedly communist nations left–China, North Korea and Cuba. Also, while I am certainly no fan of Xi or his methods, Russia appears at least as potentially aggressive now and with the added issue of Russian, particularly Putin’s possible instability, it is more than arguable that we should worry about them at lest as much as we do about China.
So Ramaswamy pretty much lost it last night in my opinion(of course I wasn’t going to back him anyway), but he is still a talented and charismatic man. He needs to be a bit calmer and to show more judgement than he did last night if he wants to continue as a serious candidate.
This is, of course, a quick and not very deep analysis. It’s more like a sports writer’s spring-training time guess as to who’ll win the division and the World Series. But they’re both a long time off from his column as the actual election is from this one.
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Ramaswamy–a “new” Republican Leader(??)
Vivek Ramaswamy is surely the most interesting of the Republican challengers to Donald Trump for the Presidential nomination. Like nearly all the others he was way behind Trump a few weeks ago. I guess he still is, but not quite so “way.” Sometime in July he was at or near a 1% favorability rating among Republican-oriented voters. Since then Trump has subtantially held his own, DiSantis has entered a well-deserved decline of nearly 20% and Ramasamy has risen to 11%.
Ramaswamy(for the good of my arthritis-ridden typing fingers let’s refer to him as “VR”)is in my opinion both deserving and not deserving of this rise. OK, what’s that mean? Well, as you may have guessed, I will explain.
He deserves this attention because he is clearly the most exciting of the Republicans running for President. He is young, attractive and self-confident. He is of South Asian(Indian) descent. He is from Ohio(OK, maybe that’s not an advantage–anyway his birthplace was the southwest, Cincinatti and mine was Akron, Northeast). He’s a Harvard graduate and not yet 40, he’s a billionaire. But most of all he is ARTICULATE. Hey, an articulate Republican presidential candidate, the first one since–well, never mind. But his looks and personality combined with his extremely accomplished speaking ability combine to set up an excitement around him not much different that of JFK six decades ago(I remember him–the greatest speaker I have ever heard in American politics)
VR is like that. Among the hopeless(Doug Berman), the clueless(Ron DeSantis)and the political martyr(Chris Christie)VR is the obvious standout. Some of the others(Pence, Haley, Scott)might be OK but have next to no chance. I doubt if VR has a really big chance myself, but you never know and if the accumulation of indictments against Trump and his own apparent depression and confusion they have caused last awhile, then his still formidable candidacy might collapse. It that case–unlikely, but by no means impossible- there could be a free-for-all. VR might well emerge the winner.
I see two or three reasons for this. He would, as I suggested above, be by far the most articulate candidate and likely the most intelligent–certainly the smartest seeming. After years of uninspired leadership some Republicans might be ready for that. He would also, for reasons noted previously, be so different a Republican leader, that those despairing of the party’s path might see him as the way. Furthermore, in basic philosophy and attitudes he does not vary a whole lot from Trumpian/Republican orthodoxy most of the time. So he could be excitingly different and still an adherent of the party’s attitudes most of the time, enough to satisfy many conservatives.
My own feelings about him are mixed tending toward negative. On the whole, I like to listen to smart, well-educated people with good speaking abilities, so I find him rather fascinating. To the extent that I can grasp it, however, his domestic policy is a re-hash of Trump cum old Republican(pre-Trump)ways. He will find excuses not to help(much, anyway)those truly in need. He would use the legitimate crisis at our Southern border to enforce draconian policies(yes, something DOES need to be done, just ask the mayor of New York)but I would rather someone else did it(Joe Biden, maybe). He falls in with the pack on claiming that the many indictments against Trump & co are politically inspired and says he would pardon Trump if necessary. These things I have mentioned here are a combination of statements of his and inferences but I think they hold
His views on foreign policy I find alarmingly like the isolationist wing of the party and in keeping with right wing American foreign policy thinking for most of the past century.(See my 8/3 blog on isolation for some background). Worst, and likely indicative of his overall stance, he is doubtful about Ukraine. He even suggested to Jim Acosta he might give parts of it back to Russia!! Without suggesting its out-and-out abandonment, he talks about unnecessary American entanglements abroad and getting involved in other people’s business. This is to suggest it would not be our business if Poland or Estonia was somehow, directly or indirectly, taken over by Putin and Russia. And make no mistake, this is not impossible.
This sounds disturbingly like Trump–and also like the America Firsters of 1939-1941, the Republicans who opposed NATO in 1949, and, to be frank, like the British opposition to Churchill in the late ’30’s. What history student forgets that memorable description of the the Nazi-Czechoslovakian confrontation?-“A quarrel in a far away land among people of whom we know nothing.” I want to go easy on condemnation of Halifax, Chamberlain and the others who agreed, and I doubt the wisdom of dismissing them as “appeasers” with no other comment. These were the people who had fought(or whose young relatives had)WWI and they knew of its horrors. But in the long run they were wrong and a few years later the Luftwaffe was over London and other UK cities wrecking havoc. Well, Putin is now Hitler, Zelinskyy is Churchill and Joe Biden is FDR. The similarities are not perfect but they’re close enough. Mr Ramaswamy, please take note here.
What the results of all this will be I hesitate to predict. But I will say this to Joe Biden and the Democrats. Watch out for this guy. He’s smart, articulate and difficult to attack. He would couch his statements in complicated and nuanced ways that would him much harder to debunk than Trump was. Despite the fact that Trump’s BS often worked, this would likely be a strength for VR. So watch it, Dems. He could be a dangerous opponett. Do not risk underestimating him.
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Isolationism–Then, Now and Future??
Isolationism is misunderstood and changes from time to time and from one situation to another. But in the US, certain aspects of it appear to remain the same over decades. I am going to try to relate the isolationism of FDR’s time to today’s and perhaps add a few comments on what happened in between the two times.
FDR’s first administration dealt largely with domestic problems. At the depth of the depression with unemployment rates of 25%, maybe more, there was no other possibility. It is true that the Good Neighbor Policy with Latin America dates to the first term and that at the very first FDR cabinet meeting the question of possible conflict with Japan was mentioned. But the emphasis was on the economy, and for good reason.
At least the first 2 years of the second term were heavily involved with the depression too, an issue which was easing but not as fast or fully as had been hoped. But foreign issues, always lurking in the background were becoming pressing and by the second half of the term were threatening to take over. As far back as the early ’30’s some Americans had attended anti-Nazi rallies and feelings about foreign powers and affairs began to rise, perhaps more among those who were not on the edge of disaster from the depression than those still doing badly.
And anti-democratic powers were rising. In Japan a once fairly constitutional government was slowly slipping into being one dominated by the military, and many of the military leaders (along with a few others) had imperial ambitions. In Italy Mussolini had been in power for more than a decade and had turned one of the founding cultures of Western Civilization into a Fascist dictatorship looking for conquests. Worst, in Germany, Hitler had come to power about 6 weeks before FDR’s first inauguration, and his intentions became clear quickly. German was a threat to its neighbors (maybe including Italy-he and Mussolini did not get along at first), the rest of Europe and possibly elsewhere. But many Americans, including a lot of WWI veterans wanted not to be involved.
To some degree as a result of this, one of the leading, though not well organized political trends of the 1930’s was isolationism. It is possible to give a long history of US attitudes and other times of isolationism, but I wish to stick largely with the issues which concerned FDR. WWI began in 1914 and the US walked a narrow and sometimes difficult line of “neutrality” for nearly 3 years. But German aggressiveness and British/French desperation brought the US into the war in the Spring of 1917. It was over about a year and a half later, and the US losses, though appalling enough when taken by themselves, were smallish compared to those of the large European countries. President Woodrow Wilson was one of the dominant figures of the 1919 Paris Peace conference and on the whole performed both morally and competently. But his plan for a League of Nations to keep peace in the future was the cause of trouble.
Wilson insisted on having the League included in the Treaty of Versailles. The Treaty never passed the US Senate(the US had to make a separate peace with Germany)and the main reason was the League and fears by many that the US would become involved in foreign wars if it joined. The main enemies of the Treaty and the League were The Irreconcilables who were determined to vote “no” whatever, and the Reservationists who at least claimed to be willing to support the Treaty if their “reservations” were resolved. Between these two groups and public hostility and apathy the Treaty was doomed.
From the 1920’s on into the ’30’s American largely forgot about the war as much as possible and many who didn’t regarded it as a mistake which had cost the US much. It was also largely believed that a vicious and immoral coalition of munitions manufacturers, banks, and others had wanted war for reason of profit and had tricked the US into joining the Allies.
By the mid-1930’s a number of books with titles like “Merchants of Death” and “The Road to War.” had been best sellers. They fueled the investigations of the Nye Committee, led by ND Republican Sen Gerald Nye which investigated the argument that the US had fought for the money makers rather than for freedom. They did manage to show that a lot of munitions merchants were indeed for war(not really a big surprise). But their contention that there was a widespread plot to do this among many businesses was not proven. Nor did they address seriously the issue of German actions which drove the US further and further from genuine neutrality.
Nonetheless, by the mid-30’s there was a large number of American who could be called, roughly. “isolationists.” They were a motley lot including socialists and genuine communists on the left who regarded all war as capitalist evil, out and out pacifists who regared any war as wrong, through more or less moderates who simply wanted to keep the US at peace, to conservatives who genuinely disliked WW’s policies and believed the US should(and presumably could)stay out of other countries affairs and largely live on its own. Coupled with the resentment over the Great Depression’s misery this meant a considerable number of dissatisfied people with no taste for foreign matters.
The most obvious political result of these feelings was a series of acts called the Neutrality Acts passed from 1935 to 1939. As their name would suggest they were intended to keep the US out of any future wars, and there were three, four, or five of them depending on how you define the actions of the US Congress. The First Neutrality act passed in 1935, forbade the export of arms or any “implements of war” to any foreign nation involved in a war. It further advised US citizens that if they traveled into war zones they did so at their own risk.
In 1936 as Hitler and other dictators looked more threatening Congress renewed the Neutrality Act and extended it to May, 1937. It also made illegal any loans to belligerent nations(“Belligerent” used in this sense is a legal, not an emotional description–it means a nation involved in a war). This action may be considered a Second Neutrality Act although some have regarded it as merely an extension of the one of 1935,
In 1936 civil war broke out in Spain and other European powers saw opportunities there. The American response was the Neutrality Act of 1937 which forbade US citizens to travel on ships of belligerent nations and made it illegal for US merchant ships to transport arms to any belligerent The President was given the authority(but not required) to bar belligerent ships from US waters(the 3 mile limit off the coasts) and to extend the arms embargo to other “articles or materials” as his discretion. In a direct response to what was happening in Spain the Act specifically stated civil wars were included.
In a concession to a dubious President the Act also included the famous “cash and carry” provision which would allow belligerents to purchase necessary material other than arms from the US as long as they immediately paid for them and took them away on non-US ships. (FDR knew as many others did that only the UK and France could gain benefit from this)
In 1939 this all ceased to be theoretical when Germany occupied Czechoslovakia and war was obviously a likelihood. Congress refused to renew “cash and carry” and to include arms sales as FDR wished. But after war broke out and after a bitter Congressional debate, the Neutrality Act of 1939 was passed. It lifted the embargo against selling arms to belligerents and put all trade with belligerent nations into the “cash and carry’ category.
About a year after the outbreak of the European war, the “America First” movement was founded beginning at, of all places, Yale University. It was begun and later joined by people who were totally opposed to the US getting into a foreign war or taking any chancres of getting into one. According to their theory, strong support for the UK made it more likely that US involvement would follow.
Like the group that I described above, the unorganized isolationists of a few years earlier, the America Firsters were a fairly loose and often contradictory group. They “included Republicans, Democrats, farmers, industrialists, communists, anti-communists, students and journalists–however …(it) was controversial for the anti-Semitic and pro-fascist views of some of its most prominent speakers.”(so says Wikipedia) These included Henry Ford, perhaps the most famous industrialist and anti-Semite in the country and , after he joined several months after the founding of AFC(America First Committee), Charles A Lindberg, the great American hero of the past.
At its peak the AFC had perhaps 800,000 members. They represented practically all parts of the country but it was obvious that the mid-west was their home base. Their headquarters were in Chicago and about 2/3 of the members were from somewhere within a 300 miles radius of the Midwest’s First city. In an unusual exercise of good sense and restraint southern Whites were reluctant about joining the group, perhaps because of their military tradition and strong relations to the British from whom so many of them were descended(though the Brits were not always sympathetic to southern racial practices). Ironically, the Southern Democrats were among FDR’s strongest supporters in Congress when he turned to serious efforts to assist the UK as he quickly did after Nazi domination began to threaten.
The America Firsters demanded absolute neutrality and opposed any kind of assistance to the UK. Many of them, though mostly of WASP descent themselves, were strongly, even hatefully anti-British. Lindberg, who a few years earlier had warned US military officials that the German Air Force looked like a serious threat, often sounded anti-Semitic in his public statements. This powerful and often bitter opposition to FDR’s attempts to help Churchill and the Brits lasted until The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor Dec 7, 1941. On Dec 11 the AFC disbanded(There would be a couple of movements/parties to use the name in the next few years but nothing much came of them)
My own view of them is that they were not traitors to the US but they were foolish, selfish and short-sighted. What, indeed, did they think would happen to the US if the UK went down or sued for peace and Hitler got the British Navy to add to his own? They were certainly not all anti-Semites or pro-Nazis, but it is undeniable that that element was present. There seems to be always an underlying tendency towards anti-Semitism which has shown disgusting signs of revitalizing in the US, Europe and elsewhere in recent years. Certainly it was at work with the American isolationists of the 1930’s and up to Pearl Harbor.
The rest of the story may be told more quickly. During the war isolationism and anti-war sentiment reached a low with only a few of the mostly nutcase variety opposed to fighting Hitler. A few hysterically anti-Communist rightists thought we shouldn’t be so close to Stalin, but how many choices were there? In any event, isolationism played almost no part in the US during the war. It re-appeared quickly afterward.
There were several reasons for this. During the New Deal there had arisen among a number of Republican leaders an obsessive dread of communism and the Soviet Union. This was not entirely wrong–Stalin was indeed one of the most brutal dictators of the century and his USSR would be the enemy of the US and the rest of European-American Western Civilization about as soon as the war ended. But the fear and detesting of communism went to obsessive, nearly insane lengths in some cases. And ironically, history, a time or two, played into the hands of these extremists.
At the end of the war the US and the USSR more or less agreed that both Vietnam and Korea would be divided with the Communists dominating the North and the US the South in each case. In China there could be no agreement. The pro-Western Nationalists were in charge and the communist Revolutionaries were in the mountains and the fields and about anywhere else they could use to conduct guerilla warfare.
In Europe, the USSR dominated which was a surprise to no one, though their bald-faced impostion of dicgatorship may have surprised a few. With the French exhausted and the Brits broke it was up to Harry Truman and the Americans. He intruded in Soviet efforts with the Truman Doctrine and then by joining 15 other nations(Canada plus 14 from Europe) to form NATO with the purpose of discouraging Soviet adventurism.
Oddly and irrationally some of the hysterically anti-communist rightists opposed this, particularly NATO. Their arguments were largely what they(or their predecessors) had said about a decade earlier when Hitler was the threat–that it might lead to US involvement in foreign wars. Well, of course it might, moderates wanted to say, I’m sure, but wasn’t it you guys who have told us repeatedly about the necessity of resisting “godless Communism.?” Even so, some moderate to liberal Congressional Democrats were denounced by the far right as pro-Communist for voting to join an anti-Communists organization. No, irrationalism in American politics is not a 21st century invention.
On the whole, they calmed down after this, but when the Chinese Communists won their civl war, the rightists raised the cry, “Who lost China?” There was no simple answer to that but if you had to go for a simple one Chaing Kai-Shek was likely as close as you could get. And after the McCarthy era began he began to make references to when Truman “declared war in Korea.” Again, we have here a rightist cheered on by other rightists for denouncing an anti-Communist move by a liberal President.
After this the controversy calmed a bit, but one of the reasons for this may be that a funny thing happened. I won’t try to explain why this happened because I cannot, but over about the next decade or so a lot of those small town conservative isolationists became interventionists. They were still hysterically anti-Communist but now believed in fighting it abroad and abandoned isolationism. This was logical in a way, but also unfortunate. Their change of feelings may have ben involved in whatever pushed LBJ to his over committment in Vietnam.
I have alreaady written of Vietnam and will not take much time re-doing that. I will merely say that the interventionism which I think was wise to the point of being necessary in World War II and was at least arguably correct in Korea, was badly misplaced in the case of Vietnam. But the isolationists, if there were any, were not a serious national voice, and their inheritors the small town and rural conservatives were now not only rabid-anti-Communists but rabid advocates of intervening anywhere to “Fight communism.” Unfortunately, this often meant fighting someone who accepted Soviet Communist help and mouthed the commie line to get it; but often they were more nationalist than communist and sometimes they opposed people who we shouldn’t have been the the same metaphorical room with and who simply used us. But that is(perhaps)something to discuss another time.
After our various adventures and misadventures in the Middle East in the first two decades of this century, we are brought to our contemporary situation. Is isolationism returning? If so, who are the isolationists and what is their motivation? And to what extent are they likely to have an effect?
Although as you know I like to avoid generalizations, it appears to me that pre-WWII isolationism was clearly dominated by the far right but with a fair amount of far-left and even some centrist input(see above). The inheritors of the same people seem to be the isolationists now, only without the possible restraint of almost anyone from the left or center. This means most of the Republicans in the House of Representatives and a lot from the Senate also, though possibly a bit more restrained and found in small numbers there. Mitch McConnell, whatever his shortcomings, is not fond of extremists, paticularly noisy ones who make his party look foolish.
But look at the record. The anti-FDR, anti-Churchill, anti-Brit isolationists were led by conservative Republicans almost all the time. There was some anti-Semitism in their movement in the ’30’s and this became clear after the America Firsters appeared. Anti-Semitism was rife among them from their founding up until Pearl Harbor. After that, of course, they practically had to go into hiding, and indeed many of them behaved honorably during the war
In the current case which is to say Ukraine, there are similarities and differences, but I am particularly impressed by the former. While Biden has maintained fairly solid support of the Ukrainians, both in Europe and at home, there have been a few who never agreed or have changed their minds. There is, fortunately, no note of anti-Semitism in the current lot, but the similarities to their forbears in the 1930’s are noteable. They are now nearly all rightist Republicans and once again we hear, at times, that this is none of our business and that America’s interests are more threatened by our Ukrainian-support policy than they would be by just staying out of it.
Like the 1930’s-’40’s isolationism and like a lot of mistakes, this has a shred of truth in it. Obviously early in WWII it was more likely Americans would wind up fighting Germans if they helped the British than if they didn’t. But what about the cost for later on, both for the world and our own people?
Today it is true that there is a greater danger of trouble short of conflict or actual conflict if we help Ukraine right now, but again–what might be the price of not-helping? The case is complicated by the presence of Russia’s nuclear arsenal compounded by what appears to be instability in Russia itself. I do not wish to make light of any of this. These things, particularly the danger of a direct US-Russia confrontation, are serious matters. But so would be an overt Russian invasion of Poland perhaps with the backing of Belarus. Poland is a NATO member and Article 5 would apply.
The current isolationists include, but are not limited to, some of the more bizarre characters on the Republican Right. Although there is no known(to me, anyway)familial relationship, they seem to have inherited some of the less admirable aspects of the America Firsters. It appears that there is a sort of psychological/philosophical inheritance that drifts down the generations and the years and that no one completely understands.
But like their forbears many of the isolationists of today bear a bitter dislike of the US President and show a reckless disregard for the dangers we face from our leading adversaries, in this case Russia and Putin who seems to be still running it as of now. They disparage our efforts to hold together our so far effective NATO support of Ukraine and seem unconcerned by the possible loss of freedom to Russia or to home-grown dictators in Eastern Europe. This group, which includes such now well-known names as McCarthy, Greene, Boebert, Gaetz, Gosar and Jordan, seems to be repeating history though I suspect , to a large degree without consciously being aware of what they’re doing or how close the comparisons are.
It would be interesting to see someone do a column or a TV satire on these comparisons. Equate Putin with Hitler, Biden with FDR and Zelensky with Churchill and see what you get. Or, more to the point, see what the isolationist point of view might get us if we consider history, precedents and current patterns. This should be a lesson for everyone concerned. I hope it is a lesson well learned–or that at the least it soon will be.
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Freidman, Biden, and Netanyahu–pay attention
I think have mentioned before my high regard for NYT columnist T L Freidman and earlier this week he gave us more reason to be grateful for his work. On Tuesday he was invited to the White House for an interview of some candor with the President which he passed along to us via his column of Jul 19. Because of the importance of this (largely ignored by the media lately)subject, I urge you to read it. Meanwhile, here is my summation with a few comments.
First of all President Biden was anxious to get through to PM Benyamin Netanyahu that the current crisis in Israel and its echoes in other countries, particularly ours, is serious business I mean, of course, BN’s suggested “reforms” to the judicial system which would strip the Supreme Court of much of its power over public life. Since Israel has no written constitution, it is not clear how far this would go, or what limits could be assumed, but he obviously wants it to go a very long way.
This would mean the power of the legislative part of government, the Knesset, could be virtually unlimited. This body is often divided and Israel has so many parties that it is difficult to control, but if one party(or coalition)led by one powerful charismatic man got control of it, there would be no serious way to limit it. Netanyahu may be on the verge of this.
To be sure, many Israelis are resisting this fiercely. Tens of thousands of them have taken to the street, something common in some parts of the Middle East, but nearly unheard of in Israel. These people have made no secret of their opposition to this stripping of judicial power and moving towards something like totalitarian rule. They are likely in the majority now, but whether they will remain so is an unknown. The situation is actually, in a rough way comparable to ours. Trump has strong support from a minority of our citizens. But it’s a large and noisy minority, and if he and they got real power what they might do is unknown(they would be a bit more constrained by the Constitution and precedent that those in Israel).
Biden has taken all this into account and as a loyal friend of Israel, he fears what they might do to themselves. They might cease to be a force for stability and democracy in the Middle East and become another troublesome nation. In a world beset by the Ukrainian War, global climate crisis and increasing adventurism among reckless leaders this would not be a welcome event.
Freidman says the President is perfectly aware that this is way more than an Israeli political quarrel, but the possible beginning of a world crisis or at least an additional irritant to a fractious and divided international community. But the President also knows he is walking a tightrope. He must not show disrespect for Israel and/or appear to be trying to dictate its actions in domestic matters. At the same time he needs to be able to influence these things, but not give away the game about what he is doing. This is a difficult feat and would be for any President the US has ever had. Many have played it to some degree, notably FDR, LBJ and W, none of them with total success(FDR did it the best, however).
Despite the opposition it is possible that in a moment of political passion BN and his coalition might get these “reforms” through. But they would be unaccepted by many, likely most citizens and in the long run might threaten the stability of democracy within Israel. Freidman is adamant that Biden is pointing out(and should)that the strength of the US-Israel relationship depends to some degree on that nation’s adherence to democratic values. An abandoning of them would make an already annoyed congress less and less inclined to support Israel which would include military and financial aid.
Throughout Israel’s 70+ year history the US has always been its most dependable ally and they have responded by supporting us in nearly everything we needed them to do in the Middle East. There have been a few times when our wishes did not mesh before but not very many. Meanwhile, Israel has been the most stable of Mideastern Democracies and has held up the banner of Western ideas on freedom of expression and individual rights. I personally feel that these rights, which are mostly European and North American in their origin, are indeed the most desirable rights for populations to have. Not all will be ready for all of them at the same time, but the ideal is there to strive for, and I don’t think it is racist or colonialist to believe that.
I am perfectly aware that Israel has not always lived up to these ideas, particularly with respect to the Palestinian issue(see my earlier blog on this). These shortcomings need to be fixed but they are not likely to be fixed by Netanyahu or his followers. At the same time, whatever its faults here, Israel has come as close–closer–than any other Middle Eastern country to supporting and promoting Western ideas and ideals of democracy and individual freedom. It would be a dishoner and a shame to the Israelis and to those rights to see them disappear into a mixture of Israeli oppression, Palestinian extremism and radical exploitation of that mixture.
This must not be allowed to happen and that is why I strongly commend Mr Freidman’s article to you and suggest that you look at the NYT web page frequently for articles by him(NYT has a lot of good columnists, conservative and liberal–I’ll go with David Brooks as close to being Freidman’s equal.)
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Biden, Ukraine and the “Allies”
President Biden is facing an especially difficult time in foreign policy at this moment. There are both military and dipomatic difficulties and the usual political dissent from some at home. Also, there are doubts about some of our allies in, particularly Turkey and Hungary, and what they are going to do or refuse to do.
The basics are now well known and likely you are aware of them, but just as a reminder–
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now about 1 year and 4 months old and no end is in sight.
The Ukrainians have resisted valiently, propped up by American and other NATO support in equipment, money and diplomatic efforts
The Ukrainians claim(and likely are to some extent) succeeding is pushing the Russians back a little bit in their counter offensive–but it is slow going and the price in pain, money , life and frustration is high–still both the people and the government show every intention of carrying on.
President Biden is now on a diplomatic journey to Europe He is expected to meet with British PM Rishi Sunak, King King Charles III and perhaps others, then move onto a NATO meeting at Vilnius, Lithuania, and eventually Finland. While there may be some dissent in the UK on at least one issue (see below)the main trouble is likely to appear at Vilnius. There are two parts to it–the President’s cluster bomb decision, made just days ago and explained on Fareed Zakaria’s CNN show Sunday, and much odder quarrels with the leaders of Turkey & Hungary.
On the cluster bomb decision–as I think nearly everyone(if they have the slightest interest in what is going on there) now knows, cluster bombs are a relatively new and potentially very deadly weapon which appeared apparently early this century (or about then) An airplane drops a container holding many small bombs which are programmed to go off about the time they get to the ground or shortly thereafter. Now any bomb is dangerous to human life(it is, after all a weapon)but these seemed particularly to threaten non-combatants, some immediately and some not for hours or years after being dropped.
Cluster bombs have a “dud-rate” which means a number of them are duds, that is they do not go off when supposed to. I did not find any exact figures on this, but my impression was that this rate sometimes could be 5% or more. These “duds” might lie quietly in a neighborhood, a farm or a woodland and then explode because someone tripped over the weapon or otherwise disturbed it or for some other reason; this could happen a long time, possibly years after they had been dropped.
This means of course they these weapons do not kill or injure at the time of the fighting, but may do so many years later to other people after a war is over No wonder, they are anathama to many. In the late 2000’s a effort began to ban their use and this led to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, an international agreement not to use such weapons. So far 123 nations have signed the agreement and all but 13 of them have ratified it. Among the signers-ratifiers are many of our best friends including Britian, Canada and France. Among the non-signers are the US, Ukraine, Russia, China and Iran Most of the non-signers are nations with whom we have at best coolish relations and with some (Iran, for example) we are actively hostile.
I am going to leave why the US stayed out of this humane-sounding agreement as a moot point for now, particularly since I found in searching the internet that it is difficult to locate a straight and intelligent sounding answer from anyone. The main point now is the President’s decision and what it means. Now anyone who has any common sense or empathy and has paid any attention to recent years knows Joe Biden is a decent man and one who acts on principle rather than mere politics to a remarkable degree, He told Fareed he found this a very difficult decision and I believe him He understands pain and loss and he knows his action to provide cluster bombs to Ukraine will cause these things. He hopes that it will also prevent more in the future.
I find this a very difficult decision too. Should I support him or not? I finally decided that I should,, so for what little it’s worth(not that anyone’s asking me) I back the President’s decision. My reasoning, following the President’s rather closely, I believe, is as follows–the Ukrainian advance though “successful” in that they are advancing, is very slow as noted above. The Russians have used cluster bombs against Ukraine without discrimination or restraint causing widespread pain and destruction that is totally non-military. They are also sowing the seeds of pain and loss in the future when the “duds’ go off.
There are to be some dissents and some decent hesitancy in our response and explanations. The Obama Administration issued some orders which limited our use of these weapons and some thought brought us close to playing the role of a signatory. We would like to be as close to that as possible The cluster bombs the US will supply to Ukraine will have a very low dud rate, maybe around 1%. This will make no difference to those who become victims of them, but consider how many fewer victims there will be.
Also consider that this could bring about a much earlier end to this conflict. Although almost nothing is easily comprehended about Russian politics these days, surely Putin is weaker after the failed coup attempt by Wagner than he was before. Possibly the pressures these weapons would put on him would bring peace sooner. I am perfectly aware there is no guarantee of that and that messing with Putin’s mind is a potentially dangerous game. But here it might be worth the risk, and with or without Putin at the top Russia might be weakened enough to have to deal. Yes, this sounds too good to be true and it may not be. But I see no other choices that are better.
To refuse the weapons to Zelenskey and the Ukrainians would be a blow to both their physical safety and, almost as importantly, to their morale. We need to give them the motivation to go ahead and free themselves from Russian domination if possible. Serious trouble lurks at the nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia and the longer it takes to settle the struggle, the worse it gets. Additionally, even the Ukrainians’ spirit may not be inexhaustible; and likewise our so far mostly stolid-solid support from our European allies. So if these cluster weapons may end this war more quickly, then I think the President is correct. It was a terrible decision and I’m sure it wore on him heavily But I think he was right. His choices were bad or worse and he went for the former.
The President’s time at Vilnius is likely to to be a combination of cheers and good fellowship for the leader who so far has saved Ukraine and held the NATO pact nations together along with some other things. There are also going to be questions and maybe some serious dissents. Some of these will be over the cluster bombs since nearly all of NATO except the members who we don’t trust and who don’t trust us, are signatories of the Cluster Pact. The President will, I trust, lay out a defense somewhat similar to the one outlined above(he already has in interviews as we noted previously).
What else will take place at the NATO summit is more easily described (mostly, anyway) but may be just as difficult for the president. There are two main issues–Sweden joining NATO and Ukraine demanding the same thing with a possible visit to the meeting by President Zelensky
Turkey and Hungary stand in the way of Swedish membership. They are led by two of the more noxious of our allies, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Viktor Orban. Erdogan rose to leadership about twenty years ago and this looked like a good thing for Turkey for a while. The eminently calm and judicious “Economist” welcomed him and referred to him as a “moderate Islamist.” I doubt if that is a correct description and even if it is he has not turned out to be moderate in very much. His oppressiveness in a society that was verging on real democracy has led to one very serious effort to overthrow him and to another very close election where he was at risk of losing.; He has survived both, the former some years ago and the latter a few weeks ago. He appears to be solidly in power now.
His objection to Sweden is that the Swedes have allowed a number of people he banned or chased out of Turkey to take refuge there and have made their country a fairly comfortable place for such refugees. Erdogan hates this and is particularly angry about the help Sweden has given to the Kurdish nationalist group the PKK whom he regards(perhaps not entirely without reason)as terrorists. Sweden has made a few adjustments on their policies towards refugees but apparently not enough.
Just recently, however, Erdogan has raised a more serious and perhaps less tractable issue. For decades Turkey has been trying to get into the European Union(EU)without success. The reasons for their failure so far I think relates to actual trade considerations, a mistrust(understandable)of Erdogan and his ways and a feeling that the European Union should be for, well– Europeans (not necessarily a racist position in my opinion, but perhaps not a well-considered one.)
Just recently, however, Erdogan has raised this with regard to Sweden. Now he has decided that if Turkey does not get into the EU then Sweden does not get into NATO. This tit-for-tat my sound fair and possibly in a way is, but his timing is terrible and appears to be intended to be hostile and intimidating–and however powerful he may be in Turkey he is in no position to intimidate the EU. There is likely no easy way–perhaps no way at all–around this for the present. I think having the long neutral Swedes into NATO is highly desirable, both as a military matter(note that long eastern coast)and as a diplomatic move showing that Putin-Russian arrogance and aggressiveness has pushed them into the anti-Russian camp.
The other, slightly but only slightly less irritating and menacing threat to Swedish membership is Hungary or rather its Trump-like sounding prime minister Viktor Orban who has ruled Hungary for about half of its 32-year history as a free (of the USSR) nation. It is still a democracy in that votes seem to count there but Orban’s personality and behavior seem to validate a comment I heard from a friend that an observer made a couple of years ago–that Eastern Europe is moving back towards its natural form of government — fascism. Well, Hungary is not there yet and it sounds as if enough Hungarians don’t want to go there that they may prevent it.
Whatever the case with all that, Orban is apparently a bitter foe of Sweden. His main complaint seems to be that the Swedes have said bad things about him and his approach to democracy and the rule of law. Just what the Swedes(government or ,media or both)said about him I don’t know but his attitudes have left plenty of room for such comments–which likely does not make it easier for him to take–maybe the opposite.
I know of no other squabble between the two countries though it did occur that he might be seeking to curry favor with Erdogan whom he might admire as another strong man and someone he might want to emulate or even join
The other big issue is fairly straightforward but potentially troublesome in the long run. The Ukrainians want also to belong to NATO. President Biden has said, and I think he’s right, that this is not the time. If they became a member now it would trigger Article 5 which requires each member to assist an attacked neighbor. The US and Luxembourg, in other words, would both be obliged to at least legally go to war with Russia.
Now possibly there are some provisions in international law that apply here and would indicate that joining after the war has begun is a different situation. But I’m just guessing on that, and anyway, even if it were true, there would still be increased diplomatic and moral pressure on all the members to get involved. We do not want that to happen and the President is right on this
Fortunately, it appears most of the NATO nations leaders agree with the US on this one. Most likely there won’t be big trouble about it, though it certainly may be mentioned. President Zelensky is rumored to be considering a visit to the meeting himself. Fortunately, he too, though wishing strongly to be a part of NATO, seems to have a realistic view here. He knows that it cannot really be expected now. It will have to wait for the end of the war and perhaps longer. But it should come eventually and likely will
So the President has a lot of issues, some harder than others, none easy ahead of him here. I expect that this will go fairly well and both Ukraine and NATO will emerge stronger. Keep watching.
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Giants Leaving Power–It Would Be About Time
It occurs to me that I now need to add to my most recent blog before posting it. And that is because it occurs to me now–and based upon many things, but particularly very recent news–the world may be about to witness the exits from power of two “giants.” I have in mind, of course, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Each in a way is a giant in that each has had a very large influence on history, his own country’s and, considering the power of the countries involved, the world’s.
I am not, of course, arguing that Putin and Trump are the type to be held in equal esteem with FDR or Churchill. They were giants in every sense of the word. These two are giants in the sense that their effect upon the world was immense. The same could be said for Genghis Khan, Peter the Great, Lenin, and–well, I’d better stop before I get too many Russians in there. But you get my drift.
I have no way of being certain, of course. History takes odd turns sometimes and has a way of making fools of those who claim to know too much. So I’ll merely give you my impressions. My impressions are that these two will both be out of power or the reasonable pursuit of power–well, soon. Don’t ask me how long “soon” is in this case because I don’t know. There’s so much we don’t know or understand yet and so many possibilities. The likelihood appears to be that Putin could forced into resignation, possibly retirement(possibly worse),long before he intended. Russia is hard on losers .He’s still in charge now–he held a news conference earlier today(Tue the 27th) and did not appear more paranoid or nasty than usual. But this time the cards may truly be stacked against him.
OK, I’ve studied this a bit(not a lot, I admit)and I have consulted not only CNN on my TV set, but the online information from several news sources including British Intelligence web information and Reuters, the old and respected British news service. Of course these are sources which release only the information which the people in charge of the institution want released, but still are worth checking. And it’s a confusing mess and I think likely to remain so for awhile.
Brief Review–After months of blustering about it, Vladimir Putin sent his troops into Ukraine a year ago this past February. He expected a quick victory, days or maybe weeks. He got instead stiff resistance from an obviously well trained Ukrainian army with high morale and good organization. Backed by the surprisingly united West, i.e. NATO, which sent great amounts of equipment and tons of money, they stopped the Russian advance and in some places even pushed them back. The situation on the ground is still uncertain, with Ukraine making small advances and the Russians well dug in to resist. But the Russians also now have to deal with the fact that they came close to civil war in recent days, or if not out and out civil war, something approaching it. This cannot help having affected the feelings of the troops on the ground and some of the practical details surrounding them. Like who is really in charge and do they know what to do now? Like what’s going to happen to those thousands of Wagner guys, apparently now free to move around independently and many of them most likely still armed?
Several months ago Westerners and other observers who followed the conflict closely learned that new name, “Wagner.” Yes, the same name as the well-know German composer of centuries gone by and, I think, correctly pronounced with the “V” sound, though this seems not to be universal. We also learned a new name, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Well, maybe some of us learned his name months ago. I at least heard it and finally “learned it” in recent days. “Yev,” as we will call him for obvious reasons was the leader of Wagner, whatever it was.
Now Yev has a checkered history including some years in prison for unclear reasons during the last years of the USSR. He also has a long relationship with Putin. Sometimes called “Putin’s chef,” this is not quite accurate, but he did have a penchant for making money via food service including service to Putin. He also seems to have acquired both a talent and a taste for military control and command, and, not incidentally, for political intrigue.
Somewhere along the way he founded Wagner, apparently about 2015.
What his original intentions were is not clear to me(and I’ll bet wasn’t to a lot of people)but he built the organization into a sort of private military auxiliary for Russia. His guys were mercenaries and he and they fought because they were paid. The carried on work in several places, mostly in Africa, selling themselves to the highest bidder and, most likely, at least vaguely serving perceived Russian interests. It occurs to me that if Putin were really well educated he might be familiar with the words of Machiavelli on this matter. The clever and cunning Renaissance Italian thinker said that mercenaries are the most dangerous kind of troops to use. They may be very loyal one day and then turn on their masters the next for reasons of money or because of some other kind of worldly motivation.After the invasion of Ukraine Yev became a frequently heard voice always pushing for different and usually harsher policies in the conflict. He took surprisingly frank dim views of the ways Putin was conducting the war, though he was cautious enough not to criticize him by name. He usually saved that for the Russian Defense Department and its leader, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
For months there had been speculation that trouble was brewing for Putin and Shoigu and that it was likely to come in the form of some kind of action led by Yev. This finally came to fruition a few days ago when Yev announced he was leaving Ukraine where he and his people had done some fighting against the Ukrainians and he had done a lot of complaining about Russia’s ineffective government and its war efforts. Accompanied by thousands of his troops, he entered southwest Russia, claiming that he was leading an attack on the Ministry of Defense(not the government or Putin–careful man here)and they quickly took the military base city of Rostov-on Don.(The takeover of the town appears to have been popular with its citizens. One might be reminded of the fact that in 1941 many Russians welcomed the German Army as rescuers from the depredations of Stalin’s regime. Most quickly or eventually realized their enormous mistake.)
For a few hours they held the city while Yev bragged about his coming march on Moscow. Actually, several thousand of his troops did start north and were heading for Moscow Saturday morning(US time)when they suddenly stopped about 125 miles short of their goal. There was not much explanation from Yev except that he wanted to prevent bloodshed among Russians, something that heretofore seems not to have bothered him. Perhaps the possibility of it being his blood that might be shed sobered him a bit–such things have been known to happen.
The Russian people are at least temporary winners here in that they are spared, for the moment anyway, internal fighting among their own, in other words, civil war. One possible longer time winner is Aleksandr Lukashenko, the long time leader(read dictator)of Belarus. Lukashenko has always admired strong(STRONG) leaders and in his own country has not changed the name of the secret service. I think every other republic of the one time USSR has done so–his alone remains KGB.
Lukashenko has claimed that he”brokered” the deal between Putin and Prigozihn which apparently will allow the latter to go to Belarus, his soldiers(i.e. former employees)to go home or join the Russian army, and imposes no penalties on anyone. “The Economist,” my favorite printed form of news doubts that he had a lot to do with bringing this about, but they do think he profits greatly from this. Whatever the truth of the matter, his prestige has been advanced and likewise his reputation as a smart tough guy. With Proigozihn and Putin both wounded, he might emerge as the Strongman of Eastern Europe(well, East of NATO, at least)
There seems no doubt that both Prigozihn and Putin are wounded, which worse is hard to tell. Prigozihn’s location was unknown for sometime but just in recent hours he seems to have turned up in Belarus. It also appears that his supposedly iron grip on the loyalty of his followers has melted away. It is now reported that thousands of them are furious at him for stopping the march on Moscow and are accusing him of betraying them. So the mix gets murkier and predictions more difficult.
But the opinions I heard on CNN a few hours ago, from various experts and journalists seemed to lean toward agreement that Putin is the temporary winner. But “temporary”may be the salient word. His at least temporary loss of apparent control of the Russian military may hurt him deeply. He looked at least temporarily like a loser, and I’ve already noted Russia’s attitude toward losers. Putin’s 20 year plus rulership(OK–near dictatorship most of the time)is still in place at least in appearance and perhaps in reality for now. But many who know the situation better than I feel it also may be on its last legs. What no one seems at all sure of is perhaps the biggest question–if Putin goes, who follows him and to what effect?
The Trump case, that is the most recent developments in it, is another matter and may be discussed much more quickly and directly. Unlike the Russian mess it is not full of ambiguities and maybes and who-knows-whats. As you have no doubt heard(maybe “heard” literally the source)a tape has surfaced which is now in the hands of CNN and CBS(and CBS partner, BBC). On it Trump, speaking to a group of visitors at his place in Bedminster NJ, displays a paper to them and brags that this is top secret. Reputedly the paper contains information on American plans for how to deal with Iran if for whatever reason an American attack upon Iran was required.
Now this paper, dealing with such matters as war and peace, east-west relations, US-Mideastern relations and the possibility of a war costing thousands of lives is about as important as things get. There is no doubt that Trump took it with him intentionally upon leaving the White House and he himself states on the tape that he did not declassify it(does that mean he never thought about it?)and that now, as of the date he was speaking to these people, it is still secret but beyond his ability as now ex-President to do anything about it.
Several attorneys interviewed on CNN agreed that a defense attorney confronted with this evidence on his client would be at a loss as to what to do to pull him out. There is simply no way to deny the truth. Trump took top-secret information with him which should never have been shared with anyone without a security clearance., But it was shared and now is world news.
I think this likely means that Trump’s chances to be President again just took a giant hit. He still possibly could make it, but it would be a bitterly divided nation he would be stuck leading and one with very likely a divided Congress and a confused and divided court system. I think that this will be obvious to any serious observer well before the election and will sink his chances to considerably less than 50%.
His chances of getting the Republican nomination are still higher than those of becoming President. But even this is beginning to fade I’d say. CNN reports that a recent poll(unspecified what poll as nearly as I could tell)showed slippage of his support within Republican ranks. It won’t take much more to put him into all over slippage among those who are likely to vote in Republican primaries and by the time the primary voting begins this process may have moved ahead a good ways.
It is still, of course, too early to tell anything for sure. But it appears to mean the Trump fascination may fade now, perhaps rather quickly and that it will never again be Trump and Putin running US-Russian relations. It will be Somebody else and Somebody else. In the case of the US the Somebody has to be an improvement on another Trump era. In the case of the Russians, it is harder to say. But a different world appears to be not only in order now, but possibly in view. Would that be a relief? I’ll leave your answer to you. You’ve likely already guessed mine.
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Pence and Christie–initial campaign impressions
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A Movie About Everything(That Matters)
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My apologies– a silly mistake
In my Memorial Day blog in the paragraph on leaving Afghanistan I made a shamefully careless mistake- I referred to our being in Afghanistan for 20 years but then exiting at the Airport in 2001–I am sure most of you realized I meant 2021(the other makes no sense)but I try to avoid this kind of sloppiness and seriously apologize for it–the result of my always threatening impatience I guess–so it goes, but I hope none of my columns will go this way again-John
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The Day to Say…..What?
Many of you will remember that there was once a great NPR show late Sat afternoons(5:00-7:00 PM ET, actually)know as “Prairie Home Companion.” It was hosted by the greatly talented Garrison Keillor who was more or less forced into retirement for a “relationship” with a colleague. Keillor was–is, he still entertains some–one of the great comedic-philosophical minds in US history along with Mark Twain, James Thurber and the like. Part of his show was “The News From Lake Wobegon” which he did unfailingly every week.
I remember one of those on which he recounted the story of a local pastor who had agreed to speak at the town memorial Days services, then forgot about it. He remembered a minute or two before he was supposed to make his speech. Unflappably, he approached the mic and stood there for a minute or two in total silence. Then he said”On Memorial Day, what else is there to say?” According to Keillor, this was well received by the townapeople.
The quick witted MN pastor was fictional, but Keillor had a hold of an idea there that is all too true. What, indeed, is there to say? Men(sometimes women, too)have fought and died for the US since its beginning, or technically since before it’s offical beginning as a country. I once made a list of US wars and then asked myself how many of them were what a sane, worldly person might consider “necessary.” My conclusion was–about half.
When I was a child and your heard speeches about veterans they were about, mostly, vets of the two World Wars. In each case the US had helped allies, mostly European, to resist illiberal and dictatorial government from other European states and in so doing helped to preserve democracy and individual freedoms. This part, though easy to parody and not totally factual, has a large grain of truth in it and it was why these speeches were inspirational. In Europe in the two world wars and, to some extent arguably in Korea in the early 50’s American did indeed defend freedom. But after that it gets more complicated, and now it’s a mess of contradictions and half-truths often twisted by politically oriented people to what they think is their own advantage.
A history of American wars since the Korean War shows the complexities. The good guys and bad guys are harder to distinguish and sometimes one or both types seem to be on both(or all)sides. The politically oriented take certain facts they like and twist a few others for their own advantage. And, curiously, some of the same alignments and mentalities appear today as were there in FDR’s time.
A brief history of US wars since Korea–
From the end of World War II on for about 20 years we slowly, slowly got involved in Vietnam–the involvement picked up through the Eisenhower and Kennedy Administrations, but was likely not irreversible until LBJ’s commitments of the mid-1960’s. After that we were stuck in a no win situation–we couldn’ t win and we dared not lose. But through the Johnson Administration and through the first Nixon one the war remained. We were fighting an evil, aggressive and implacable enemy and for the first time we were up against an enemy that did not care how many men they lost or how long it took. Neither Administration seemed to get this last part. Nor did they seem to get that opinion in Vietnam was divided over whether the war against the North Vietnemese and the Viet Cong should go on.
Henry Kissinger has been blamed, perhaps rightly, for some of this, but he also shared with Le Duc Tho of North Vietnam the Noble Peace Prize for ending this whole mess in 1973. Dan Schorr, the remarkable CBS newman and colleague of the great Walter Cronkite once pointed out that the mess resulting from the Munich Conference led a whole generation of Western Statesmen to live by the motto, “No More Munichs.” Schorr acknowledged that that made sense for awhile but that as the world changed it should have been considered that maybe some of the rules changed. He argued quite persuasively that this type of nobly intended but not well thought out policy making led to Vietnam.
Schorr also pointed out that Vietnam had been such a mess that at the time he was writing (about a half century ago now)the Munich frame of minded tended to disappear and be replaced by a new slogan, “No More Vietnams.” He suggested that that made sense in the current context of the time but suggested that that too might age and become useless or worse. And I guess this happened
iN 1990 Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwai and brought down on himself a large coaltion of Middle Eastern and other Powers led by the first President Bush. Saddam and Iraq were quickly defeated and Kuwait freed, Bush ignored pleas from some(including me, to the extent that I counted) to go ahead and topple Saddam. But he saw this would have been a bad and exploitive action and he refused. Temporary stability was soon returned to the Middle East. This is the last time we really got it right in foreign policy and intervention.
In any event from 1992-until 2001 the US was not directly involved in military action.(The NATO air war on Serbia late in Bill Clinton’s second administration hardly counts. There was no direct American involvement on the ground.)
Then we got the invasion of Afghanistan(late 2001)as a reaction to 9/11 and intended to punish the Taliban; then the seriously misguided invasion of Iraq in 2003, also a result of 9/11 but additionally involved with the question of “weapons of mass destruction” in the hands of a dictator. Afghanistan was obviously a mistake–we can see that now, but it wasn’t clear then. The Taliban, who were in charge, allowed Al-Quaeda to get refuge there and to plan for 9/11 there. It seemed to me a clearcut case of self-defense and I supported President Bush on that (not that any journalists asked me).
Iraq was different. The ambiguous evidence was not convincing either way about Saddam having weapons of mass destruction. Remembering Vietnam in 1964 I decided that Iraq in 2003 was not a place to be for the US or our troops. Once again no one asked me and the President and Congress went for it. We wound up with an 8-year conflict, later somewhat renewed.
In Afghanistan we got a 20-year involvement which didn’t end until the world-wide viewed mess at the Airport in 2001. I quite agreed with what Presient Bush did there at first, but it was obviously a mistake. Fortunately, we are out. though not gracefully. The last chapter on this may be still to be written maybe.
So,we still celebrateMempiral Day and we still should. Those who sacrificed lives, health, loved ones, careers and pride should be celebrated
But it gets harder and less impressive every year, Or so it seems to me. We just attended our hometown parade as we have almost every Memorial Day for 30 years of so. But this year the bands mostly did not play, just marched and kept time. The riders in the parade seemed less than enthusiastic when compared to the past. There seemed to be no organization to it, just a bunch of people riding and marching around with no obvious idea of what it was all about. And finally, there was a notable lack of anything like class or civilization among the spectators. Marlon Brando and his torn tee shirt would have been more accepted than William Powell or Cary Grant. So maybe Eliot was right, and this is the beginning of the whimper for America. I sincerely hope not–but I wonder and I realize maybe most discreditably to me, the greater number the young families were obese or covered in the most revolting tatoos or both. I do not insist that everyone follow my idea of taste and I may be off base here but there it is. I’ll try to be back soon was a review of a terrific movie–one that might suggest the whimper is not universal.